Yantang Dairy (002732) 2019 first three quarter results forecast comment: the new plant capacity release smooth expansion outside the market can be expected
I. Overview of the event The company released the forecast of the first three quarters of 2019, which is expected to achieve net profit attributable to mothers in the first three quarters1.
1.6 billion, +60 per year.
00%; Q3 achieved net profit attributable to mother in a single quarter.
500,000 yuan, ten years +65.
Second, the analysis and judgment of Q3 profit growth rate significantly faster than H1 in 19Q3 single quarter return to net profit attributable to the mother.
5 ‰, +65 a year.
46%, a significant increase in the net profit growth rate (+ 57%) from 19H1, mainly due to the increase in the performance base generated by the company’s 18H2 capacity transfer and the initial stall, so it is expected that the high probability of profit growth in 19Q4 will continue.
According to historical experience, the company’s Q4 profit scale is usually lower than Q2 / Q3, but combined with the first three quarters1.
The profit range of US $ 1.6 billion is expected to return to the parent net profit1 as determined in our previous interim report review1.
The 21 ppm forecast is not difficult to achieve, and expectations of progressively surpassing expectations remain.
The new factory is fully prepared for production capacity and the output is released steadily. Since 2019, the Huangpu new factory has been running more fully and the output is gradually released.
We expect the Huangpu Plant 19.
8 The minimum annual designed production capacity is ready, equivalent to a daily production capacity of about 600 tons. Combined with the production capacity of the Zhanjiang plant, the company’s long-term production capacity is expected to reach 25 per year.
Based on the 18-year average ex-factory price of dairy products, the company produced about 7 dairy products in the first half of the year.
7 or so, it is expected to exceed 16.
In the medium and long term, the company has adequate capacity preparation and room for expansion in output growth.
“Old Guangzhou” yogurt has the potential for large single products, and the company’s expansion outside Guangzhou is expected.
In April 19, the 杭州夜网论坛 company launched sucrose-free “Old Guangzhou” yogurt, which further enriched the product variety. The “Old Guangzhou” yogurt was initially blended with the potential of large single products.
In terms of expansion outside the city, after field investigations, some convenience store channels in Shenzhen already have “Old Guangzhou”. Yantang products are being sold, and breakfast and fresh food stores are still being sold. The company ‘s products will be exported to the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area in the future.Expansion is expected.
Third, profit forecast and investment recommendations The company is expected to realize operating income in 19-21.
77 ppm, +15% / + 17% / + 19% per year; realize net profit attributable to listed companies1.
62 trillion, +187 a year.
5% / + 14南京龙凤网.
2% / + 17.
2%, the corresponding EPS is 0.
03 yuan, the current corresponding PE is 29/25/21 times.
The company’s overall estimate is 30 times lower than the PE level of the dairy sector, maintaining a “recommended” level.
Fourth, risks indicate that capacity release is slower than expected, cost growth exceeds expectations, and food safety issues.