Zhongheng Electric (002364) company comment: performance is slightly lower than expected 5G and ubiquitous bring new impetus

Zhongheng Electric (002364) company comment: performance is slightly lower than expected 5G and ubiquitous bring new impetus

The company released the third quarter report of 2019: the first three quarters achieved revenue6.

22 ppm, a ten-year increase of 7.

23%; net profit attributable to mother is 0.

62 ppm, 29 years ago.

93%; net profit deducted from non-mother 0.

56 ‰, 30 from the previous decade.

36%; gross profit margin 37.

73%, a decline of 2 per year.

31 points; net margin 9.

46%, a ten-year average.


Single quarter: revenue in the third quarter alone2.

45 ppm, an increase of 4 per year.

50%; net profit attributable to mother 0.

21 ppm, a 56-year average of 56.

50%; deduct non-attributed net profit 0.

19 ‰, 58 years ago.

41%; gross margin 35.

40%, more than ten years.

78 points; net margin 8.

42%, a decrease of 11 per year.

16 points.

Performance was slightly lower than market expectations.

The growth rate of gross profit margin + the increase in expenses during the period resulted in a decrease in net rate, and operating cash flow needs to be improved.

The first three quarters of the company’s sales / management (including R & D) / financial expenses were 0.


21 / -0.

09 million yuan, short-term changes -3.

53% / + 6.

08% / + 43.

30%, three fee rates are 9 respectively.

52% / 19.

53% /-1.

51%, period expenses 27.

53%, an annual increase of 1.

22pct, the increase in the expense ratio during the period and the decrease in gross profit margin caused the company’s net profit in the first three quarters to fall by 5.

The company’s net operating cash flow in the first three quarters was -0.31 ‰, a sharp drop of 78.

32%, mainly due to the annual increase in cash payments related to operating activities.

The advantages of charging piles are prominent, and the entire industry chain of “cars + piles + aftermarket” is laid out.

In September 2019, the company won the competitive negotiation procurement project for electric vehicle charging piles of Zhejiang Petroleum Integrated Energy Supply Service Station, with a bid amount of 1550.

06,000 yuan, accounting for 55% (in terms of amount), ranking first, with prominent advantages; In October 2019, the company became the sole equipment supplier 杭州桑拿网 (to be awarded) of the third-generation AC charging pile tender project of State Grid Evergrande Smart Energy Service Company200 sets of trial production products need to be delivered by the end of 11 months, and the demand is expected to be 300,000 units in the next five years. While contributing to the company’s future business contribution, it will vigorously promote the layout of the entire industry chain of “vehicles + piles + aftermarket”.

HVDC benefits from the heavy demand for 5G + IDC, and the support of energy interconnection platforms is ubiquitous.

The company has been deeply engaged in the field of communication power for many years. It is a leader in high-voltage direct current power technology (HVDC). The current 5G base station layout is accelerating. It is expected to generate more than 50 billion US dollars in 5G base station communication equipment power supply space.Data center power requirements bring significant increases.

Since 2012, the company has laid out an energy internet platform to create an industrial body focusing on the energy internet. Currently, ubiquitous construction is fully advanced. The company will transform the energy internet research platform and ubiquitous electric power IoT solution to fully support the ubiquitous promotion.

Investment suggestion: The company has been cultivating power electronics and power informatization for many years, and has obvious advantages in the field of electric vehicle charging piles and HVDC. At present, it benefits from 5G construction, IDC power supply demand accelerates, “ubiquitous” comprehensive advancement and energy Internet construction.

We expect the company’s net profit attributable to mothers to reach 1 in 2019-2021.



53 trillion, EPS is 0.



45 yuan, corresponding to the closing price of PE on October 29, 2019 were 53.



1x, maintaining the overweight rating.

Risk warning: New energy vehicle production and sales are less than expected, 5G investment is less than expected, and macroeconomic growth is less than expected

Hongqi Chain (002697) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: Performance Meets Predicted Investment Income Continues to Thicken

Hongqi Chain (002697) 2019 Third Quarterly Report 杭州夜生活网 Review: Performance Meets Predicted Investment Income Continues to Thicken
The company’s revenue from 1-3Q2019 increased by 7 per year.82%, net profit attributable to mothers grows 58 per year.69% of the companies released the third quarter report for 2019: 1-3Q2019 achieved operating income of 58.88 ppm, a ten-year increase of 7.82%; net profit attributable to mothers4.0.6 million yuan, converted to a fully diluted EPS of 0.30 yuan, an annual increase of 58.69%; net profit deducted from non-attributed mothers3.0.94 million yuan, an increase of 53 in ten years.73%, the performance is in line with the company’s previous performance announcement.  In terms of single quarter breakdown, operating income in the third quarter of 2019 was 20.58 ppm, an increase of 11 years.59%; net profit attributable to mothers1.69 ppm, a 67-year increase.51%; net profit deduction for non-attributed mothers1.65 ppm, an increase of 62 in ten years.15%.  Comprehensive gross profit margin increased by 1.08 averages, during which the rate of expense rose by 0.The consolidated gross profit margin of 1-3Q companies for the 26 quarters was 30.05%, rising by 1 every year.08 averages.  Expenses of the company during the first three quarters of 201924.19%, rising by 0 every year.There are 26 totals, of which the sales / management / financial expense ratios are 22 respectively.50% / 1.72% /-0.02%, change 0 each year.08/0.41 / -0.22 units.The increase in the company’s management expense ratio was mainly due to the increase in media promotion fees and the 70th anniversary of the founding of the PRC.  Xinwang Bank continued to contribute to investment income, reports on increasing profitability, and realized company investment income1.310,000 yuan, an increase of 252 in ten years.22%, 55.92 million yuan in the third quarter alone, making an important contribution to the overall performance growth.The company and Yonghui’s business continued to deepen, and the theme of the store brought about enhanced drainage capabilities, supplemented by the expanding range of development services and the 南京夜网论坛 continuous enhancement of internal control levels, which brought continuous improvement in the company’s profitability.In terms of incremental strong regional competitive advantages, the company is expected to benefit from the expansion of market space brought by the growth of Chengdu Tianfu New District.  Upgrade earnings forecast and maintain “overweight” rating. Taking into account the continuous increase in the company’s investment income brought about by the increase in the performance of Xinwang Bank. At the same time, the improvement of operating efficiency brought by cooperation with Yonghui has gradually come to an end. Predictions to 0.34/0.38/0.40 yuan (previously 0.32/0.34/0.37 yuan), maintaining the “overweight” level.  Risk warning: Internet financial business policy risks

Semir Apparel (002563): Minutes of R & D Center and Store Investigation

Semir Apparel (002563): Minutes of R & D Center and Store Investigation


Considerations for setting up lean factories in R & D centers?

The company is characterized by virtual operation, and almost all of its products are outsourced. The consideration of arranging a production line here is that the company hopes to lead the supplier. It must first understand the production and can help the supplier to improve the efficiency and ability in production.

This production line belongs to the company’s demonstration plant.

And the company also organizes multiple trainings to help suppliers improve production capacity.


What does lean production mean for the company?

The company uses big data for each item to feedback to the supplier what points and differences are in production, which will help improve the efficiency of the 重庆耍耍网 supplier, which will indirectly improve the company’s efficiency. It is more scientific to replace the order, and it can also be replaced by the quick response.easy to accomplish.

Another benefit is that by establishing a database such as GST man-hours, the company can more transparent and refined the cost measurement of purchasing from suppliers. For example, if it tells the supplier clearly the reasonable man-hours for the production of a certain product, if it differs from the standard level, it means thatNot enough.


The progress and efficiency of lean production?

It is still in trials for 18 years and is in the early stage. This year, it began to bloom everywhere. It is planned to be extended to 30% of suppliers to make a difference.

Complete supplier coverage within 3 years.

For example, the company once conducted a pilot at a supplier factory, but the other party did not agree with it, but after the first production line was upgraded with the help of the company’s large lean production department, the efficiency increased by 12%, and the supplier highly recognized it. 3 The factory was upgraded within a month.

This year, promotion will be carried out at suppliers such as the Semir brand and the Balla brand. It is conservatively estimated that the efficiency of the factory can be improved by more than 10% after the upgrade.


How to realize the cost accounting of multiple SKUs for one production line?

The company will integrate resources, part of the cost accounting of multiple SKUs is done by its own production line, and some of it is done by the best supplier resources.

At the same time, production parameters change in real time, such as changing equipment, fabrics, etc. This work needs to be continuously updated.


The proportion of quick response and future goals?

Currently accounting for 10?
15%, hope to increase to 30 in the future?


Will it change the production cycle of the entire industry chain?

In the past, the industry generally required 10 from R & D to the final product launch?
Over the course of 12 months, changes in fashion trends have accelerated the difficulty of forecasting and are prone to inventory problems.

From a technical perspective, the production cycle is shortened to 3?
Four months is achievable.

The company will improve lean production, and divide all products into long-term, medium-term, and short-term. If the basic models are produced all year round, it is a long-period product; some high-fashion products need to be realized by fast reverse.

Survey of Semir Brand Stores in Wuma Street, Wenzhou 1.

Basic situation of the store: It opened in 2001, with a total area of 2,100 square meters, ranking in the top ten, and the annual turnover has been more than 30 million since 10 years.

More than 40 employees.

The shop is divided into 3 floors, with an area of 200 square meters on the first floor, 600 square meters on the second floor, and 1200 square meters on the third floor.

The first-floor showroom is more popular with men’s clothing to meet the needs of basic models. The second-floor is more fashionable and dynamic products or IP models. The third-floor is women’s clothing.

The warehouse area is 200 square meters.

The turnover in 18 years has decreased compared to 17 years, mainly because the Wuma Street area was significantly renovated in 5 months last year, affecting sales.

Operating indicators: SKUs are about 600 in summer, 480 in spring and autumn, and less than 400 in winter.

Flat effect 1.

About 50,000.

Lease-to-sale ratio is about 16%; labor cost accounts for about 10%; electricity costs 2?

Joint rate 3.

3. The unit price is around 300, with an average discount of 68%.

The sales rate was more than 70% in spring and autumn, and nearly 90% in winter.


Product situation: Quick response ratio 10?

The stores will capture local fashion trends, feed them back to the headquarters for production, and test sales in large stores. If sales are better, they will continue to roll out, increase re-orders and shop in small stores.

The relative product change is mainly the age range upwards and downwards widening. Previously, it gave the impression that it is a student outfit. Now it can be expanded to 14?
15-year-old middle school students, as well as parent-child outfits, have expanded the minimalist line upwards and are suitable for office workers.

In the autumn of 19, the change of products over the 18 years was mainly the development of plum models (cooperative IP) and simple lines.

The prices of these urban products are generally increased by 30%.


Loading arrangements: Generally, the products of a season are divided into 3 major subdivisions, and the store will be divided into multiple times according to the capacity. A large replacement is roughly divided into winter models 4?
5 times, spring and summer and about 2 times.
The product will be displayed for two weeks from the beginning, and the store will resume its life cycle. If it can continue to meet 4?
Five-week sales are at normal levels, otherwise they are slow-moving or high-selling, and measures are taken accordingly.


Category: existing women’s clothing accounts for about 38%.

Shoes and accessories account for about 5%. By the end of the year, I hope that the sales of shoes and accessories will double. In the future, I hope to display shoes and accessories in an area of 15%. It is planned that shoes and accessories will account for about 10% of sales.

Survey of Barbara brand shops in Wuma Street, Wenzhou 1.

The basic situation of the store: the area is 850 square meters, the annual turnover level is about 10 million (18 million turnover 11 million), 16 employees.

Opened in 2002, expanding area.

It will shrink a part in 19 years, and the corresponding target will be reduced at least a little. Last year was 11 million, and this year the target is 9.6 million.

The first floor is for babies and accessories; the second floor is for girls; the third floor is for boys and leisure areas.

The first floor area is 60 square meters, and the second and third floors are similar and larger.

The total display area is about 720 square meters.


Operating indicators: 17% rent-to-sales ratio and 12% labor costs.

Discount rate 71?
25% off, with a rate of 3?

3, the customer unit price is about 320.

Flat effect 1.


The sales rate is more than 60% for spring models, and 70% for summer and winter models.

The highest turnover is about 13 million, and it will be around 10 million in the next few years.
It is the best-selling and draining shop in Wuma Street children’s clothing brand, occupying most of the region’s share.


Product situation: SKU autumn model 750, summer model 850?
900, about 700 winter models.

Baby products have grown rapidly, with sales accounting for 7% last year and 10% this year.


18-year sales share: Every 60% decrease in traffic is mainly due to the entire street being renovated in 4 months last year.

The increase mainly comes from the customer unit price, which is achieved by increasing training and incentives for shopping guides.


Membership: Store membership (Weike) 6000?
7,000, the current priority is to improve the conversion rate.
Established 5 WeChat customer groups, contributing about 5%.

Moutai, Guizhou (600519): Stable characters take precedence over quality

Moutai, Guizhou (600519): Stable characters take precedence over quality
Investment points: Investment advice: Moutai still has high-speed growth capabilities, and its earnings volatility will be significantly reduced in the future.Moutai will always have the industry’s top brands, products, and channel control. The proportion of direct sales has increased and increased with each passing day, and performance has become more stable.In 2020, the “Infrastructure Year” will be adjusted to inject new power into Maotai from production to channels.Considering that Maotai’s business plan shifts to 四川耍耍网 steady growth and pursues relatively stable and sustainable development, it lowers EPS 32 for 2019-21.19, 38.48, 50.99 yuan (previous 35.75, 45.25, 55.58 yuan), cut target price to 1347 yuan, corresponding to 2020 35X PE, increase rating.  In 2020, the volume of Moutai wine plans exceeded expectations and plans to release3.45 per year, an annual increase of 11%.The market is expected to increase its investment volume by 5%, mainly due to the impact of 2016 output to determine sales volume. After the completion of the 100 billion target, the 2020 growth requirement will be reduced.The significance of the preliminary confirmed production forecast sales lies in long-term, short-term sales are more related to business strategy.The planned volume exceeding expectations is consistent with the idea of stable operation.  It is clear that the Spring Festival does not raise prices, whether to raise prices still depends on the word “stable”.Restatement that the price of Moutai involves the interests of the government, enterprises, shareholders, distributors, consumers and other parties, and “the short-term price increase” has not appeared.We believe that stable operation is a substitute for Moutai’s price increase, but Moutai attaches great importance to raising prices and taking into account the interests of all parties. The price control ability of channels for sale is further strengthened, and the possibility of price increases in 2021 is great.  Consolidation of direct sales channels is the key to the future stability of Moutai.Among the basic warnings for the management of distribution channels, the existing planned volume of dealers remains stable.The new plan is divided into a direct-operating system, in which the number of self-operated specialty stores doubles, and according to the gradual approach, the business super, e-commerce, and group purchase plans are arranged.We believe that only Moutai is the real terminal in the liquor industry. Through the increase of the direct sales ratio, Moutai 深圳spa会所 can better control the price change and reduce the disorder such as consignment. The channel control is far superior to its peers.  Risk Warning: Food Safety Issues; Significant Increase in Terminal Prices Increases Severity of Channel Management

Yantang Dairy (002732) 2019 first three quarter results forecast comment: the new plant capacity release smooth expansion outside the market can be expected

Yantang Dairy (002732) 2019 first three quarter results forecast comment: the new plant capacity release smooth expansion outside the market can be expected

I. Overview of the event The company released the forecast of the first three quarters of 2019, which is expected to achieve net profit attributable to mothers in the first three quarters1.



1.6 billion, +60 per year.


00%; Q3 achieved net profit attributable to mother in a single quarter.



500,000 yuan, ten years +65.



Second, the analysis and judgment of Q3 profit growth rate significantly faster than H1 in 19Q3 single quarter return to net profit attributable to the mother.


5 ‰, +65 a year.


46%, a significant increase in the net profit growth rate (+ 57%) from 19H1, mainly due to the increase in the performance base generated by the company’s 18H2 capacity transfer and the initial stall, so it is expected that the high probability of profit growth in 19Q4 will continue.

According to historical experience, the company’s Q4 profit scale is usually lower than Q2 / Q3, but combined with the first three quarters1.


The profit range of US $ 1.6 billion is expected to return to the parent net profit1 as determined in our previous interim report review1.

The 21 ppm forecast is not difficult to achieve, and expectations of progressively surpassing expectations remain.

The new factory is fully prepared for production capacity and the output is released steadily. Since 2019, the Huangpu new factory has been running more fully and the output is gradually released.

We expect the Huangpu Plant 19.

8 The minimum annual designed production capacity is ready, equivalent to a daily production capacity of about 600 tons. Combined with the production capacity of the Zhanjiang plant, the company’s long-term production capacity is expected to reach 25 per year.

Based on the 18-year average ex-factory price of dairy products, the company produced about 7 dairy products in the first half of the year.

7 or so, it is expected to exceed 16.

In the medium and long term, the company has adequate capacity preparation and room for expansion in output growth.

“Old Guangzhou” yogurt has the potential for large single products, and the company’s expansion outside Guangzhou is expected.

In April 19, the 杭州夜网论坛 company launched sucrose-free “Old Guangzhou” yogurt, which further enriched the product variety. The “Old Guangzhou” yogurt was initially blended with the potential of large single products.

In terms of expansion outside the city, after field investigations, some convenience store channels in Shenzhen already have “Old Guangzhou”. Yantang products are being sold, and breakfast and fresh food stores are still being sold. The company ‘s products will be exported to the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area in the future.Expansion is expected.
Third, profit forecast and investment recommendations The company is expected to realize operating income in 19-21.



77 ppm, +15% / + 17% / + 19% per year; realize net profit attributable to listed companies1.


62 trillion, +187 a year.

5% / + 14南京龙凤网.

2% / + 17.

2%, the corresponding EPS is 0.


03 yuan, the current corresponding PE is 29/25/21 times.

The company’s overall estimate is 30 times lower than the PE level of the dairy sector, maintaining a “recommended” level.

Fourth, risks indicate that capacity release is slower than expected, cost growth exceeds expectations, and food safety issues.

AVIC Mechanical & Electrical (002013) 2018 Annual Report Commentary: Steady Growth of Military Products Industry Optimistic about the Company’s Development Prospects

AVIC Mechanical & Electrical (002013) 2018 Annual Report Commentary: Steady Growth of Military Products Industry Optimistic about the Company’s Development Prospects

Event AVIC Mechanical and Electrical released the 2018 annual report, and the company actually realized operating income of 116.

37 ppm, an increase of 4 per year.

08%; realize net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies.

37 ppm, an increase of 16 in ten years.

49%; basic return is 0.

23 yuan / share, an increase of 15 in ten years.


The main business of aviation has maintained steady growth and is optimistic about the company’s long-term development prospects. The company will achieve operating income of 116 in 2018.

37 ppm, an increase of 4 per year.

08%, 105 of the annual plan completed.


Military aviation and defense initially achieved income 72.

83 ppm, a ten-year increase of 8.

The growth rate is 17%, far exceeding that of the civilian products business. It is expected that the fundamentals of the military industry will continue to improve, and the military products business will still maintain rapid growth.

Revenue from industrial manufacturing business decreased by 0% year-on-year.

83% to 38.

61 million, is expected to remain stable overall.

Civil aviation revenues fall by 9 per year.

66% to 3.

5 billion, through the continuous promotion of civil models such as C919, AG600, MA700, the civil aviation market has a broad space.

Financial expenses decreased significantly, and the amount of receivables increased by 32.

78% 2018 selling expenses1.

93 ppm, overhead costs11.

7.4 billion, an increase of 5 each year.

67%, 9.

00%, basically in line with the company’s business growth; financial expenses 2.

12 ppm, a decrease of 20 per year.

42% of the company’s convertible bonds was issued in 2018, effectively improving the company’s capital structure and reducing financial costs.

Ending accounts receivable 67.

7.6 billion, an annual increase of 32.

78%, related to the company’s increase in product delivery speed; inventory reached 41.

48 ppm, an increase of 3 per year.

86%, due to the company’s increase in raw material procurement for production and increase in work in progress.

The aviation electromechanical system listing platform may benefit from asset injection in the future. The company currently trusts 7 companies and 1 public institution (609). As the domestic electromechanical system listing platform of the Aviation Industry Group, the company will fully enjoy the military civilian electromechanical system trillionUS dollar market space, the reform of scientific research institutes, and the implementation of mixed reforms may benefit from asset injection expectations in the future.

Profit forecast We expect the company’s operating income to be 125 in 2019-2021.

68, 134.

48, 138.

510,000 yuan, the net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was 10.29, 11.

39, 12.

310,000 yuan, the corresponding EPS is 0.

29, 0.

32, 0.

34 yuan, corresponding to PE is 25, 23, 21 times, maintaining the “overweight” level.

Risk warning: military orders are less than expected, and automotive business development is less than expected.

Intime Gold (000975) In-Depth Research Report: Three major gold mines gradually release gold upstarts and are expected to usher in a burst period of performance

Intime Gold (000975) In-Depth Research Report: Three major gold mines gradually release gold upstarts and are expected to usher in a burst period of performance
The infringing mines gradually resumed production, and the production of gold mines gradually reached production.(1) In 2019, Yulong Mining, a subsidiary of the company, was suspended due to the “Silver Man incident”, which caused the company’s silver, lead and zinc production to improve. At present, the impact of this incident has gradually been eliminated. Yulong Mining is expected to resume production in the first quarter of this year.铅锌产销量将恢复到2018年水平;(2)2019年四季度子公司吉林板庙子金矿受到采矿证换证过程中的不可控因素影响,导致该公司矿产金产量减少 年有所改善It is expected that the relevant factors will be gradually eliminated in 2020, and the gold output of Jilin Banmiaozi will gradually return to the previous level; (3) The 2020-2021 subsidiary Qinghai Dazhaitan Tanjianshan gold mine will gradually reach its output, contributing a corresponding increase.Overall, we expect the company’s gold sales to be 7 in 2020/2021.6 tons and 8.5 tons, about 4 in 2018/2019.95 tons and 5.86 tons (expected) previously increased significantly.  The three major gold mines are gradually increasing in volume, and the company is expected to usher in a period of explosive performance.The company achieved operating income of 48 in 2018.26 ppm, an increase 都市夜网 of 225 in ten years.52%, net profit attributable to mother 6.620,000 yuan, an increase of 103 in ten years.7%.  The company ‘s revenue and net profit attributable to the company have increased significantly. The main reason is that after the company ‘s reorganization is completed, the production of each mine is running well. Shanghai Shengwei Mining Investment Co., Ltd. has begun to consolidate its scope since the beginning of 2018, which has a positive impact on the company ‘s performance.The company achieved revenue of 38 in the first three quarters of 2019.76 ppm, a five-year increase of 5.43%, net profit attributable to mother 6.580,000 yuan, an increase of 37 in ten years.32%.Some of the company’s mine production was affected in 2019, but the net profit attributable to mothers in the first three quarters still maintained 杭州桑拿 a higher growth rate, mainly due to the apparent increase in gold prices starting in 2019.It is expected that Yulong Mining and Jilin Banmiaozi, which were attacked by the company, will gradually resume production in 2020, and the company’s revenue and net profit will reach a substantial increase.  Gold mine assets are of high quality and there is huge room for increasing reserves.Jilin Banmiaozi reserves 641 ore resources.25 cobalt, 27 gold metal.25 tons; the amount of resources and ore within the mining right of Dahaidan in Qinghai is 390.38 Cobalt, Gold Metal Content 17.27 tons; Qinghai Dachaidan exploration right (including the 323 mining area being converted) holds 883 ore resources.24 cobalt, 35 gold metal.28 tons; Heihe Yintai reserves 199 ore resources.16 cobalt, 17 gold metal.77 tons, the amount of silver metal is 142.61 tons.Heihe Yintai Dong’an Gold Mine is expected to have a lot of space for additional reserves, and Dachaidan in Qinghai can also increase reserves.  Merged and acquired Dingshengxin high-quality mines to further strengthen the silver, lead, and zinc business.The metal resource of Dingshengxin Lead Mine is 65.97 cobalt (Pb2.38%), the amount of zinc ore metal resources is 209.85 cobalt (Zn7.56%), the amount of silver ore metal resources is 684.27 months (Ag24.65g / t), and the metal resources of gold mine are 531.49 kg (Au0.29g / t).Through the acquisition, the company’s lead, zinc, silver and high-quality mineral resources will be further thickened, and the release of long-term performance is still expected.  Profit forecast, estimation and investment rating: Based on the company’s three major gold mines gradually increasing in volume and the gold price continues to grow, we believe that the company’s performance in the next two years is expected to usher in an explosive period, and in the long run, the company acquires Dingsheng related lead-zinc-silver mines.Its high-quality silver mine resources background will further enhance the company’s forward valuation.  Without considering the assumption of the acquisition of Ding Ding Sheng Xin, we expect the company’s operating income to be 58 in 2020 and 2021.46 ppm and 60.5.2 billion, net profit attributable to mothers was 12 respectively.39 ppm and 13.35 trillion, EPS is 0.62 and 0.67.PE calculated at the closing price on February 24, 2020 was 26 times and 24 times, respectively.Intime Gold’s other gold listed companies are significantly undervalued with a target price of 21.06 yuan, given a “strong push” rating.  Risk warning: The price of gold has fallen sharply, the company’s gold mines have failed to meet expectations, and the continued improvement of the US economy has led to an increase in interest rate expectations.

Guojin Securities Zhou Yue: Only Shanghai has a fiscal surplus in the first half?

Guojin Securities Zhou Yue: Only Shanghai has a fiscal surplus in the first half?

Source: Basic Indicators of Yuedu Bond Market[Special Topic]From mid to mid-year, 31 provinces and cities have successively announced the first half of the fiscal year ‘s “transcripts” of fiscal revenue and expenditure.In the first half of the year, only Shanghai had a fiscal balance, and the remaining 30 provinces and cities had gaps in revenue and expenditure.

So, how to understand the problem of gaps that are common in various provinces and cities?

What was the fiscal situation in the first half of the year?

There is no need to make a fuss about the local revenue gap.

The “financial imbalance” was calculated by simply using the rolling difference between fiscal receipts and checks, which was too one-sided and ignored the existence of two processes of primary and secondary distribution under the internal tax system.

Considering the fiscal balance, the focus is on the structure of the general budgetary revenue of the provinces and cities after the secondary distribution, that is, focusing on the index of fiscal self-sufficiency.

The financial situation of the provinces and cities in the first half of the year is re-examined: we supplemented the general fiscal revenue growth rate, general fiscal expenditure growth rate, and fiscal self-sufficiency index, and compared the financial situation in the first half and the first half of last year.

In the first half of the year, due to economic growth, tax cuts and fees were increased, and the fiscal revenue growth of all provinces and cities has been fully expanded. At the same time, relative expenditures under steady growth pressures have led to a large number of provinces and cities ‘expenditure growth.rise.

Summary: From the perspective of fiscal accounts, we will still be optimistic about the ability of local fiscal self-balancing, given the central government’s subsidies to local governments, the use of carry-over funds, and the arrangements for transfer of funds.

However, the trend of financial differentiation among provinces and cities needs attention.

In the first half of the year, the budget for the income was relatively fast, and the provinces and cities with excessively high growth rates of expenditures had limited space for fiscal expenditures during the year. Corresponding fixed asset investment, economic growth was under pressure, and debt risks might increase.

Risk warning: Monetary policy continues to tighten; interest rate fluctuations exceed expectations.

  First, only Shanghai has a fiscal surplus in the first half of the year?

  From the middle of the year, 31 provinces and cities successively announced the “transcripts” of fiscal revenue and expenditure in the first half of the year. Based on “general public fiscal revenue” instead of “general public fiscal expenditures,” simple rolling results showed that only Shanghai had a fiscal balance in the first half of the year.The remaining 30 provinces and cities all have problems of non-payment.

So, how to understand the gaps in revenue and expenditure that are common in various provinces and cities?

What was the fiscal situation in the first half of the year?
  1. There is no need to make a fuss about the gap in local revenue and expenditure. As early as 2017, the self-media article titled “The Truth of China’s Finance: 25 Provinces in Debt, Only 6 Provinces Have Surpluses” was screened in multiple financial media.The gap (or surplus) of fiscal revenue and expenditure in each region was calculated by comparing the difference between the national tax revenue of 31 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities) and general public budget expenditures. The results show that fiscal revenues and expenditures of 25 provinces and municipalities existed in the first half of 2017.The shortfall is only Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen (planned cities) have fiscal surpluses.

  Roughly similar, if based on the simple calculation of the public financial revenue and expenditure data of the provinces in the first half of the year, only 31 of the 31 provinces and cities have a slight surplus of 192 in Shanghai.

2 ppm, the remaining 30 provinces and cities have problems with receipts that do not resist cheques. Henan, Sichuan, Hunan, and other provinces with the greatest pressure have gaps of more than 300 billion yuan.

  However, the “fiscal imbalance” obtained by the above-mentioned two calculation methods is too one-sided, which is ultimately a misunderstanding of the budget fiscal system.

In the central and local tax sharing system, there are two processes of primary distribution and secondary distribution.

  If you only look at “one distribution”, the local local budget revenue in 2018 is only 97,904.

500 million yuan, corresponding expenditure is 188,198.

26 trillion, even considering 8,300 trillion local deficit arrangements, 12,319.

The carry-over balance of US $ 7.7 billion and the use of transferred funds still have a gap of nearly 7 trillion yen.

This gap needs to be replaced by the return of central budgets to local budgets and transfer payments, that is, secondary distribution.

  Since 1994, developing countries have implemented a tax-sharing fiscal system, and central fiscal revenue has been stable at about 50%.

In order to resolve regional imbalances, the central government still has transfer payments to local governments. In 2018, central transfers to local governments accounted for 81 of central budget expenditures.


In this way, the central government can balance resources between economically developed and less developed regions.

Generally, even provinces and cities that are recognized as economically and financially developed will receive a certain amount of subsidy income from the central government every year.

Taking Shanghai as an example, the 2017 final accounts report showed that it received 781 from the central subsidy.

600 million yuan.

  Fiscal revenues across China have been uneven since ancient times.

Whether the separation of the “political center” Changan and the “economic center” of Luoyang in the Tang Dynasty or the taxation of the Jiangnan region in the Ming and Qing dynasties accounted for 60% of the country, it is clear that “transfer payments” are inevitable.

Regardless of the natural environment, population density, transportation facilities, and concentration of logistics transaction sites, provinces and cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Guangzhou have rich economic and profit resources, and it is understandable to contribute to the country by turning over funds.

  Therefore, when considering the fiscal balance of provinces and cities, the focus is not on measuring the gap of fiscal revenue and expenditure in the primary distribution, but on the structure of the general budgetary revenue of the provinces and cities after the secondary distribution.

根据一般公共预算收支决算平衡表可得:  一般公共预算收入+中央补助收入+其他收入=一般公共预算支出+其他支出[2]  我们建议使用财政自给率指标反映各省市财政收支情况,即Fiscal self-sufficiency rate = general public budget revenue (level budget + non-tax revenue) / general public budget expenditure.From the horizontal comparison of the data in 2018, Shanghai, Beijing, Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu rank among the top five of the 31 provinces and cities in terms of self-sufficiency in finance, accounting for more than 74%. Provinces and cities with poor fiscal balance include Tibet and Qinghai., Gansu, Heilongjiang, etc., all accounted for less than 30%.

Most provinces and cities have a self-sufficiency rate of no more than 50%, which is a substitute for central compensation.

  2. The review of the financial status of provinces and cities in the first half of the year took into account that it is not objective to simply calculate the general fiscal revenue and expenditure gap for horizontal comparison. We believe that the comparison can fully reflect the fiscal changes of provinces and cities, that is, compare the first half of each year and the first half of last year.

Specific indicators include: general fiscal revenue growth rate, general fiscal expenditure growth rate, and fiscal self-sufficiency rate.

Growth rate of general fiscal revenue: Economic expansion plus tax and fee reductions are finally viewed from the growth rate of general public budget revenue growth in the first half of the year. Among 31 provinces, Beijing, Chongqing, Guizhou, Xinjiang, Hainan, Gansu, Qinghai, TibetEight other places showed negative growth, and another nine provinces recorded the lowest growth rates in the same period in 2012, including Beijing, Fujian, Hubei, Guangdong, Hainan, Chongqing, Sichuan, Guizhou, and Ningxia.

The top three growth rates are Shanxi, Hebei and Zhejiang.

Around the first half of last year, growth in 25 provinces and cities decreased. Only Hunan, Tianjin, Jilin, Inner Mongolia, Hebei, and Guangxi increased. The economic development momentum in Hebei in the first half of the year was good, driving general public budget revenue to increase by 12

7%, second only to Shanxi’s 12.

9%, the growth rate of the other 5 provinces and cities is mainly due to the smallest base in the same period last year, such as -12 in Inner Mongolia from the first half of last year.

8% (affected by the “squeeze” event) increased to 5.


  The growth rate of fiscal revenue in various places has been mainly affected by the downward pressure on the economy, and it has also been related to the reduction in taxes brought about by large-scale tax and fee reductions.

Since the early days, various tax reduction policies have come to fruition: a new special tax reduction method that was fully implemented in January, a significant reduction in interest rates and tax rates since April, and a gradual promotion of half-tax collection for small and micro enterprises.
  Taking Beijing as an example, the general public budget revenue in the first half of the year was 3,170.

900 million, down 2 every year.

5%; of which personal income is 286.

500 million, down 33 every year.

The tax reduction effect of the individual tax policy is the main cause of dragging down the growth rate of fiscal revenue.

  Taking Chongqing as an example, in addition to the personal income decline of more than 33%, the city’s non-tax income was affected by the fee reduction policy and the income of urban infrastructure supporting fees was transferred to the budget revenue of the fund, which fell by 19%.

2%, resulting in a decrease in the city’s fiscal revenue by 7.

8% (2 in the same period last year.


General fiscal expenditure growth rate: The counter-cyclical force situation is obvious. On the contrary, the expenditure end of each province is not affected by the reduction of fiscal revenue in the first half of the year, and the expenditure situation is obvious under the pressure of steady growth.

The growth rates of fiscal expenditures of all 31 provinces and cities are all positive growth, of which 20 provinces and cities have reached the number of countries, and Guizhou, the number one, even reached 21.


Around 2018, the growth rate of fiscal expenditures of the 20 provinces and municipalities in the first half of the year increased, reflecting from the side that the local governments are more enthusiastic about actively developing financial resources in response to economic growth and employment pressure.

  However, there are also 11 provinces and municipalities whose fiscal expenditure growth rate did not rise but fell during the same period last year, mainly due to income-side pressure.

Taking Shanghai as an example, fiscal revenue growth in the first half was only zero.


First, economic growth, especially industrial growth indicators, and second, tax and fee reduction efforts continue to increase. It is estimated that additional tax and fee reductions will increase by approximately 183.5 billion, affecting approximately 75.2 billion local public budget revenue in Shanghai.Considering the balance of income and expenditure budget, it is not difficult to understand the breakdown of expenditure growth rate.

Fiscal self-sufficiency rate: Except for Shandong, the overall decline is proportional to the horizontal comparison of fiscal revenue and expenditure gaps. We are more concerned about the degree of fiscal self-sufficiency.

Approximately in the first half of last year, only the fiscal self-sufficiency rate in Shandong Province increased by 1 percentage point, and the self-sufficiency rate in the remaining 30 provinces and cities fell across the board, typically in Beijing, Guizhou, Chongqing and other places, with a decline of more than seven.

At the same time that the growth rate of fiscal revenue has fallen, the forward tilt of fiscal expenditure has led to faster expenditure in the first half of the year, which is the key to the decline in self-sufficiency.

  Taking Henan Province as an example, the general public budget revenue from January to June was 2,147.

500 million US dollars, accounting for 53 of the current budget.

4%, an annual increase of 6.

3%, while the expenditure was 6,137.

600 million, reaching 67 to adjust budget arrangements.

5%, an annual increase of 12.

In terms of time progress, income lags far behind expenditure growth, resulting in a gradual decline in self-sufficiency rate2.
1 average.

  3. Summary: What do you think about the second half of the year?

  In the first half of the year, due to economic growth, tax cuts and fees were increased, and the fiscal revenue growth of all provinces and cities has been fully expanded. At the same time, relative expenditures under steady growth pressures have led to a large number of provinces and cities ‘expenditure growth.rise.
If we simply use the general budget revenue and expenditure margin, only Shanghai has a fiscal surplus in the first half of the year, and the financial self-sufficiency rate of 30 provinces and cities has declined.

From the perspective of financial accounts, considering the central government’s subsidies to local governments, the use of carry-over funds, and the arrangement of transferred funds, we are still very optimistic about the local and local fiscal self-balancing capacity[4].

  However, the financial differentiation of provinces and cities may become a core issue for the market in the second half of the year.

Judging from the current statements, some provinces will still work hard to achieve the early budget goals, some will vigorously reduce general expenditures, and some have already considered lowering their initial budget goals.

Taking Shanghai, which has a good financial base, as an example, it is clear that the government’s general government expenditure reduction, which has already been implemented, will be reduced by 5% to more than 10%.

Strictly control supplementary budgets, never increase budgets, and generally do not introduce policies to increase current expenditures.

[5]  因此,在不考虑增加地方财政赤字的前提下,上半年收入下滑较快、支出增速过高的省市(典型的如贵州省)年内财政支出空间有限,相应的固定资产投资、Economic growth is under pressure to challenge and needs to focus on the possibility of rising debt risk.

  注:  [1]新闻来源:https://www.One color.

com / news / 5334430.


  [2] 这里的其他收入主要包括地方债务收入、结转结余和调入资金使用,相应的,其他支出包括地方债务还本支出、补充预算稳定调节基金和结转下年支出.

  [3]The statistical caliber of Jilin data is from January to April, the same below.

  [4] 详细分析见报告:《财政能否更积极?Expected infrastructure development?

“(July 28, 2019).

  [5]News source: https: // finance.



en / china / 2019-07-24 / doc-ihytcerm5782021.


  Second, the real economy observation 1. Demand is weak, production is weak, oil prices continue to decline, demand-side real estate transactions have fallen, automobile sales have weakened, and total demand has come under pressure.

The real estate policy adheres to the “no housing and speculation” positioning, and real estate financing has tightened. The sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium cities this week has shrunk significantly, which is -5.

4%, a year of -7.

6%, the demand for commercial housing weakened.

Regarding the supervision of commercial housing, the government’s supervisory departments mainly include: “Don’t use substance as a means to stimulate the economy in the short term” during the Politburo meeting in July, the “Circular 23” of the CBRC, and the CBRC to discuss trusts, restricting financial institutions from illegally real estateThe provision of funds by enterprises, etc., will lead to the contraction of commercial housing. Subsequently, due to economic growth expectations, the sales of commercial housing may continue to decline.

With the policy disturbance to car sales subsided, until July 28, the average weekly retail volume of passenger cars was 43.

550,000 vehicles, down 14 from the previous week.

25%, at least 4 weeks in July can be negative.

(Note: The latest data of passenger car sales in August is not available.) The average daily coal consumption at the production end fell month-on-month, shrinking for 18 consecutive weeks and showing a volatile trend.

Blast furnace operating rate is still weak for ten years.

The average daily coal consumption of the six major power generation groups this week was -8.

9%, the annual decline narrowed to -11.

7%, running in the negative range for 18 consecutive weeks. In the process of changing the development model and adjusting the industrial structure, the industrial electricity consumption that accounts for the total electricity consumption will gradually decrease. Considering the clearing of the old economy and the cultivation of a new economyBackground, the average daily coal consumption for power generation is reduced or refracts the economic structural transformation.

Fluctuations in electricity consumption caused by weather and other reasons are just disturbance factors.

The blast furnace started reconstruction this week.
48%, up 3 from the previous month.

29%, one year from negative to positive.
The blast furnace operating rate was the second low of 66 during the transition period in mid-July this year.

After 0%, it recovered for 4 consecutive weeks, indicating that industrial production continued to repair marginally.

At present, domestic economic activity is weak, trade frictions are intensifying, and the global economy is weakening, and the blast furnace operating rate may fluctuate.

  In terms of industrial product prices, the escalation of trade disputes has impacted industrial product prices. The domestic South China industrial product price index has fallen sharply for two consecutive weeks, and has decreased by nearly 3% from the previous week to 2,219. The international CRB spot index has increased from a decline to 448.

72, up 1 week on week.


; This week the Myspic steel price index closed at 141.

38, down 1 from the previous month.

83%. In July, the PPI entered a negative range. The market demand was subdivided. The production and operation activities of enterprises declined. The procurement activities of steel mills were shrinking. The profit of steel enterprises was extended. This week, the average national cement price closed at 471.

68 yuan / ton, down slightly from the previous month.


The short-term impact of the cement industry, such as periodic rain, has entered a relatively low season. Cement prices have fallen in some areas, but factors such as the impact of the trade war and the increasing downward pressure on the domestic economy may trigger the strength of policies in new infrastructure and make up for shortcomings.Cement industry.

Crude oil prices continued to fall under the escalation of the trade war and the impact of increased external risks. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures closed at 58 this week.

$ 53 / barrel, down 5 from the previous month.


  2. Price: The price of pork continues to rise, the price of eggs rises, and the price of fruits and vegetables declines. In terms of food prices, affected by African swine fever, pork supply is tight, and pork prices continue to rise, rising month-on-month.

59% to 25.

38 yuan / kg, pork prices have risen for 10 consecutive weeks since June, pork prices may be an important factor in driving inflation in the second half of the year; vegetable prices have fallen against the trend, and the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index (fresh vegetables) has dropped to 109 for 3 consecutive weeks。
86; The average wholesale price of 7 key monitoring fruits this week was 6.

82 yuan / kg, down 2 from the previous month.

57%, 7 consecutive weeks of decline; as laying hens are at a standstill, egg production has decreased and egg prices have rebounded. Since July, the average weekly increase in egg prices has been 2.

39%, current price is 9.

50 yuan / kg.

CPI 2 in July.

8%, slightly higher, the rise of food items, especially pork, is the main cause of the CPI. Currently, the impact of African swine fever has continued to this day, and there is an upward phase of the existing pig cycle. Pork supply continues to be insufficient in the second half of the year. PorkPrices still have room to rise.

Egg prices may have an impact at some point in the future.

  III. Liquidity Tracking 1, Funding: Transitional monetary policy “Stand-by force” Issuing and issuing three-month bills of US $ 5 billion this week has been converted into a view that the current banking system’s liquidity can be reasonably adequate, and no reverse repurchase has been conducted this weekOperation, open market operation net investment of -5 billion yuan.

It is initially shown that the monetary policy is still strong, and targeted liquidity is “precision drip irrigation”, and it is more determined not to engage in “flood flooding.”

Due to the escalation of the trade war, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar depreciated slightly this week.

59% closed at 7.

052 (closed last week at 6.


In the short term, the trade situation will be the main factor affecting the RMB exchange rate.

Affected by the trade war and the US economy in the short term, the US dollar index fell 0.

51 to 97.

57 (closed last week at 98.


  2. Money market: SHIBOR overnight and weekly interest rates are generally downward for 3 consecutive weeks under interest rates. Among them, SHIBOR: overnight interest rates have fallen by 3 from the previous week.
8 bp to 2.

60%; SHIBOR: 1 week before the interest rate fell 0.
3 bp to 2.


Regarding the repurchase rate, R007 showed a downward trend this week and was 2 on Friday.

63%, down 5 from last week.

87 basis points; DR007 re-averaged to 2 on Friday.

63%, down from last week.


  3. Interbank certificates of deposit: the repayment amount is huge, the net financing amount is negative, the issue interest rate rises and falls, and the scale of interbank deposit and issuance has expanded this week, but due to the huge total repayment amount, the single net financing amount is negative.

This week’s circulation is 4652.

200 million yuan, an increase of 1212 per week compared with last week.

600 million yuan, the total 杭州桑拿网 repayment amount is 1768.

At 23 trillion, the final net financing amount was recorded at -338.

6.7 billion.

This week’s interbank certificates of deposit issuance interest rates have risen and fallen, of which the one-month interbank certificates of issue issuance rate increased by 10.

63 bp to 2.

77%, the 3-month interbank deposit issue rate fell by 7.

98 bp to 3.

07%, the 6-month interbank deposit certificate issue rate fell by 3.

88 bp to 3.


  Fourth, the interest rate bond market review 1. Primary market: interest rate bond issuance rebounded, national debt growth increased, and net financing increased. This week, interest rate bond issuance increased, especially national bond issuance scale increased, local bond issuance decreased slightly, and government bondIssuance has picked up.


3.3 billion yuan (1789 last week.

01ppm), its China debt issuance increased significantly to 1423.

3 billion yuan (102 last week).

30ppm), local bond issuance was slightly reduced to 790.

4.3 billion yuan (1006 last week.

71 ppm), and government bond issuance increased slightly to 769 this week.

1ppm (68 billion yuan last week).

Interest rate bonds mature this week at 1009.

05 trillion US dollars, the maturity pressure changed from last week, the net financing amount rose significantly to 2022.

2.7 billion.

There is no key term government bond bid this week, and the long-term bidding interest rate of CDB bonds has slightly increased.

2. The secondary market: the interest rate curve has steepened This week, the interest rate debt yield curve has been aligned downward, and the yields of government bonds, local bonds and CDB bonds have mostly fallen.

As external trade frictions intensify, with increasing downward pressure on the domestic economy and tightening land policies, pessimistic expectations of the market for the economy, reduced funding risks, and continued inflows of foreign capital, these factors are conducive to interest rate debt.

The interest rate curve of the secondary market generally continues to decline this week. The 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year maturity yields of national bonds are weekly changes of -2.

97bp, -3.

66bp, -6.
98bp; local bonds have one-year, five-year, and ten-year maturity yields that are weekly changes -5.

79bp, -4.
66bp, -3.

98bp; 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year maturity yields of CDB bonds are weekly changes -3.

4bp, -5.

87bp, -6.


  V. Risk warning: Monetary policy continues to tighten; interest rate fluctuations exceed expectations.

  Editor’s note: Slightly abridged here.

Placco (603566): The growth of innovative mobile insurance platform is more promising at the time

Placco (603566): The growth of innovative mobile insurance platform is more promising at the time

Investment points: 1.

China’s leading innovation-driven dynamic insurance company.

The company is committed to the development, production and promotion of new and efficient veterinary biological products and animal-specific drugs. The products cover a series of genetically engineered vaccines for swine and poultry, whole virus vaccines, antibodies, chemical preparations, disinfectants, Chinese veterinary drugs, etc .;With three major national R & D platforms, the innovation ability and comprehensive strength are among the best in the industry.

The company’s gross profit level and R & D investment ratio are in the forefront of the industry.

Affected by the swine fever caused by African swine fever, the company ‘s pig vaccine performance has been under short-term pressure; thanks to the high demand of the poultry sector and non-plague interest, the demand for disinfectants on farms has increased.The performance of Hehua Medicine continued to shine.


In the post-African swine fever cycle, the inflection point of the animal vaccine plate is approaching.

According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in October, the nationwide breeding sow stock increased by 0% month-on-month.


The first pick-up of fertile sow stocks is expected to drive the demand for pig vaccines back, which is conducive to the recovery of pig vaccines.

Poultry vaccines are expected to increase continuously in the context of continued high prosperity in the poultry sector.

Assuming that African swine fever vaccine can be successfully marketed, its potential market size is 50-80 trillion, and the animal vaccine sector will usher in a huge market expansion.

We believe that the most difficult time for the industry is about to pass.

In the future, companies with continuous R & D and innovation capabilities that can lead product and technology innovation, while providing customers with full-service services can fully enjoy the dividends brought by the rising volume and price of animal vaccines.


Technology, products and talents are the “troikas” that drive the company’s growth.

In reviewing the company’s development, we believe that technological advantages are the foundation of the company’s success, product advantages are the driving force for the company’s success, and talent team advantages are the necessary guarantee for the company’s continuous development.

The company has a leading technology platform. It has established and improved reverse genetic operations, bacterial artificial chromosomes, antigen protein expression and other technology platforms to ensure the company’s product research and development.

The company’s products are genetically engineered series of vaccines with advantages and characteristics, and have created multiple internal firsts in product development, such as the first domestic swine circovirus type 2 inactivated vaccine (SH strain), the first domesticInactivated vaccine with one shot and two defenses against circular disease and Mycoplasma pneumoniae, the first swine pseudorabies inactivated vaccine (HN1201-ΔgE strain) against the gE gene of an epidemic strain, and the first domestic chicken tributary (LaSota strain + M41 Strain + Re-9 strain) triple inactivated genetic engineering vaccine and so on.

In addition, the company not only insists on independent training in 深圳桑拿网 the construction of research and development teams, but also provides continuous technical guidance for the company’s research and development, sales, etc., directed at the introduction of high-end talents.


Earnings forecast and rating: The company has strong R & D strength in the field of animal biological products, and has good endogenous growth momentum. The growth should be in addition to most comparable companies in the same industry.

We are optimistic about the company’s stable performance growth in the poultry vaccine, antibody and chemical medicine sectors in the short term, and long-term optimistic about the considerable increase brought by the recovery of the pig vaccine sector in the breeding industry; the company is expected to achieve operating income in 2019-2021.



29 trillion (previous 武汉夜网论坛 value was 6.



3.3 billion), net profit attributable to mothers1.



10,000 yuan (previous value was 1.



820,000 yuan), EPS is 0.



63 (previous value was 0.41/0.


57 yuan), the corresponding PE is 47.

35x / 39.

61x / 30.

95x, maintain “Recommended” rating.

Risk warning: the risk of epidemic situation in the breeding industry, the risk of uncertain R & D results, the risk of intensified market competition, and the risk of product quality

Wuliangye (000858): 19-year revenue target increase of 25% to 50 billion raises earnings forecast

Wuliangye (000858): 19-year revenue target increase of 25% to 50 billion raises earnings forecast

The event describes the company’s chief revenue of 400.

300 million, previously +32.

6%, net profit attributable to mother 133.

800 million, previously +38.

4%; Q4 revenue was 107.

800 million, previously +31.

3%, net profit attributable to mother 38.

900 million, previously +43.


The company plans to pay 17 yuan for every 10 shares.

  Core Opinions 1. Perfect ending in 18 years, the sales of high-end wine broke 30 billion: the company gradually released a performance forecast, the annual report is in the range of the forecast, the company exceeded the initial set goals, including high-end / low-end wine revenue +41.

1% / + 12.

9% to 301.

900 million / 75.

The sales volume of high-end series is expected to reach more than 2 inches, and the capacity expansion trend is obvious under the background of consumption upgrade. The single Q4 tax and additional ratio are reduced by more than 0.

18pct to 14% (Q3 is growing by 3 per year.

34pct), the impact of consumption tax on profits has been basically eliminated, and it is expected that the profit elasticity in 19 years will be reflected; the sales expense ratio / management expense ratio will be shortened by -2.

6pct / -1.

7 points to 9.

4% / 5.

9%, the advance payment at the end of the year increased by 42 from the end of Q3.

700 million to 67.

1 billion, a substantial increase in cash flow in the appropriate period (sales receipts / operating net cash flow per second + 42% / +129.

8% to 195.

900 million / 84.

400 million), mainly due to the company’s request at the end of last year for the dealers to complete the first half of this year’s sudden change in the five years and the Spring Festival peak season earlier than last year.

  2. The Spring Festival sales exceeded expectations, and the expansion of consumer groups was obvious. The revenue target for 19 years increased 杭州桑拿网 by 25% to 50 billion: At the beginning, the market was very different from Wuliangye. From our channel visits in early January, feedback from some dealers alsoComparatively speaking-“high channel inventory, low prices, and serious rejection”, coupled with pessimistic macroeconomic expectations, the market’s attention to liquor is very low, but starting in mid-to-late January, Wuliangye’s market sales began to accelerate, and prices also increased.Beginning an initial rebound, the approval price rose from 780 to 820-830 yuan after the festival, and the overall performance exceeded market expectations.

On the whole, the company’s Spring Festival sales exceeded expectations. It is said that there is no problem in meeting core demand. After the price gap with Moutai has widened, the cost increases and the consumer group continues to expand. This is also the core driving force to support the company’s continued growth in the future.More and more concentrated, so the explosion of demand is more and more concentrated, the growth logic and trends of the industry have not changed.

Judging from the guidelines, the company’s 19-year revenue target reached 50 billion, an increase of about 25%, showing a firm confidence in the development of the industry and the company. From the performance of the Spring Festival and the company’s operating situation, we believe that the performance target should be achievedThe pursuit is complete.

  3. The price increase and marketing reforms have been promoted simultaneously. The internal motivation and channel confidence have significantly increased, and the growth potential will be accelerated. At the spring candy meeting, the company showed a new look, and the internal motivation was significantly improved. From the perspective of channel communication, dealer confidenceIt has also improved significantly.

After the Spring Festival sales exceeded expectations, the current stock of Laopu Five has replaced the low level. The company will then launch a collector’s edition and the eighth generation of new products. The price will rise step by step. The price of the new Laowu will be set at 879-889 yuan.Annually reduce new quality, reduce quantity and price, in product strategy (substitute products, launch ultra-high-end), marketing strategy (control panel profit sharing), team building (expanding the team, detailed evaluation), terminal control (combating consignment), channelsPioneering (decomposed from large regions into provincial theaters) and other market issues have also increased reform efforts.

On the whole, the company is on the right track. The biggest problem of Wuliangye lies in internal management and channels, not on the demand side. The marketing reform initiated by the company really releases the company’s development potential.The price increase at the company’s total time point is also the right choice. It is called liquor. The price height represents the brand height. The brand height determines the future development space. At present, the price of 1,000 yuan has not changed.Problems, therefore, price increases can not only enhance the brand, but also increase channel profits, and it will not affect consumer demand.

  4. Profit forecast and rating: EPS is expected to be 4 in 19-21.



32 yuan, corresponding to PE20 / 16/14 times, maintaining a highly recommended level.

  5. Risk warnings: 1) Constant changes in the macro economy affect demand for high-end wines; 2) The price increase effect of new products does not meet expectations; 3) Food safety incidents.