Golden Mantis (002081): Orders are expected to stabilize and rebound is estimated to exceed the safety margin and repeat the outperform industry

Golden Mantis (002081): Orders are expected to stabilize and rebound is estimated to exceed the safety margin and repeat the “outperform industry”
The company’s recent situation stands at the end of the year. Looking forward to 2020, we believe that Golden Mantis Hyundai’s estimate implies a higher safety margin, and the stabilization of orders and the rebound of the market’s overall risk appetite for the real estate industry chain are expected to catalyze reduction and repair.The company’s “Outperform Industry” rating. Comments 4Q19 order growth is expected to stabilize and pick up, centralized mining or boost 2020 profit margins.The company’s single-year growth rate in the new millennium has continued since the second quarter of this year (in the first three quarters of this year, the new quarter has increased by 30 each).4%, 21.1%, 3.7%), which caused market concerns, we think 2?The decline in 3Q order growth rate was mainly due to the company’s concern over the owner’s ability to repay the money, and actively abandoned some orders.However, as the company’s competitiveness in the industry continues to increase, we believe that the company’s overall order growth rate is expected to stabilize and rebound in 4Q19, and resume double-digit growth in 2020.We believe that the company’s previous efforts in material collection will be reflected in 2020, and profit margins are expected to improve by then. The home improvement business is expected to turn a profit in 2020.In 2019, due to the decline in the completion of real estate, the rapid improvement in the proportion of fine decoration, the prosperity of the home improvement industry has declined, and the company has implemented store adjustments to the home improvement business (we expect to gradually close about 30 stores) and scale adjustments, and the company’s home improvement business as a whole has appearedWe have met certain expectations (the net income in the first half of the year was 38.12 million yuan, and we expect to gradually or still be in a state of 杭州夜网论坛 substitution).But looking forward to 2020, we expect to gradually improve land completion projects, improve the overall overall cycle of the industry, and adjust the company’s own stores, management adjustments are gradually ending, and the company’s home improvement business will be turned into a profit in 2020. It is still expected to achieve stable cash flow under the harsh funding environment.The company’s continuous ongoing cash flow management has now established a cash flow management system that covers the entire process before, during, and after the project, and can attach great importance to audited receipts.Against the backdrop of tight financing for real estate developers in 2019, we believe that the company’s size is still expected to achieve operating cash flow of about 10 million. Although it has at least decreased, 佛山桑拿网 it still remains stable overall.If developer financing improves in the future, the company’s cash flow is expected to increase significantly. Estimates suggest that we are expected to be affected by the relatively tight financing environment of 4Q19 developers. The company’s 4Q19 receivables may have some pressure, receivables turnover may improve, and the corresponding bad debt accrual may increase, so we lowered 2019/2020.Net profit forecast 3.0% / 2.8% to 23.4/27.0 million yuan (corresponding to 10 yuan.3% / 15.2% annual growth).The company’s current price corresponds to 9.6x / 8.3x 2019 / 2020e P / E, we maintain our target price of 12.6 yuan is unchanged, corresponding to 14.4x / 12.5x 2019 / 2020e P / E and 50% upside. The risk order was lower than expected, and the return was higher than expected.

Depth-Company-China Merchants Shekou (001979): The rhythm of settlement disturbs the gradual performance of revenue

Depth * Company * China Merchants Shekou (001979): The rhythm of settlement disturbs the gradual performance of revenue

In the first three quarters of 2019, China Merchants Shekou achieved operating income of 255.

4 ‰, a decline of 24 per year.

4%; realize net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies.

9 trillion, a year down 38.

5%; EPS 0.

64 yuan, down 39 every year.


Considering that the company has too much soil reserves in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, after the launch and acceleration of completion, the high sales growth can continue to be expected, but due to the rhythm of the stage and the structure, the 2019 settlement 杭州桑拿 performance is slightly lower than the previous forecast.The EPS forecast for -2021 is 2 respectively.



54 yuan, corresponding to 19 years of PE8.

4x, maintain BUY rating.

Key points of the support level The rhythm of settlement affects revenue and provides long-term performance guarantee.

The company achieved operating income of 255 in the first three quarters of 2019.

4 ‰, a decline of 24 per year.

4%; net profit attributable to mother is 50.

9 trillion, a year down 38.


The decrease in revenue was mainly due to the uneven distribution of completion time and carry-over time. The carry-over area expanded in the current period, and the settlement scale is expected to pick up in the fourth quarter.

The decrease in performance over the decrease in revenue was due to the entry of some limited-price low-margin projects into the settlement period and the increase in three expense ratios. The settlement structure is expected to improve.

The company plans to complete an area of 10 million digits in 19 years and +100 in ten years.

5%; advances received at the end of the third quarter amounted to 1,347.

3 billion, an annual growth of 35.

2%; Planned completion of high-income overlapping advance receipts settlement, 19-year performance guarantee guarantee replacement.

The sales amount increased by nearly 40%, and the expansion of reserves in the third quarter was positive.

The company achieved sales of 1,620 in the first three quarters of 2019.

40,000 yuan, an increase of 39 in ten years.

4%, sales area of 8.33 million square meters, an increase of 49.

7%, the growth rate led the leading real estate enterprises.

In the first three quarters of 2019, the company added 52 projects and added 830 capacity-building plans.

90,000 countries, a decline of 17 per year.

3%, the amount of land acquisition accounted for about 36 of the sales amount.

7%, a year-on-year decline of 33%; the expansion of reserves in the third quarter was relatively active, taking land to build 447.

60,000 countries, an annual increase of 126%, and the additional soil reserves are still mainly distributed in first-tier and second-tier cities.

Sales receivables have increased significantly, and leverage has decreased significantly.

At the end of the reporting period, the company’s asset-liability ratio was 75.

6%, net debt ratio 65.

4%, decreased by 1.6, 11.

With 9 averages, the leverage ratio dropped significantly.

Reporting the average, the company’s net cash flow from operating activities was 90.

90,000 yuan, an increase of 255 in ten years.

8%, sales receipts increased significantly.

Cash at the end of the reporting period was 677.

800 million, short cash debt ratio is 1.

3. Debt repayment ability budget.

It is estimated that we adjust the company’s EPS forecast for 2019-2021 to 2.



54 yuan (previous forecast was 2.

61, 3.

24, 3.

92), corresponding to 19 years of PE8.

4x, maintain 佛山桑拿网 BUY rating.

The main risks faced by the rating were worse than expected in the fourth quarter; the three expense ratios rose more than expected.

SPD Bank (600,000): Spreads bottom out and asset quality improves

SPD Bank (600,000): Spreads bottom out and asset quality improves

Event: On March 25, SPDB disclosed its 18-year annual report.

Net profit attributable to mother was 559 in 2018.

100 million, a year-on-year increase of +3.

1%; revenue 1715.

40,000 yuan, +1 year on year.

7%; ROE reached 13.

14%, down by 1 every year.

31 pct.

At the end of 18 years, the NPL ratio was 1.

92%, down 22P from the beginning of the year.

Opinion: Do more interbank debt under low market interest rates, and drive the net interest margin to continue to widen.

94%, an increase of 8BP over 17 years.

The return to the loan business has boosted asset yields.

18 years full loan +11.

1%, investment amount -8.

64%, while the average 18-year loan yield is 1 pct higher than the investment.

Around, the overall return on the asset side has improved.

18-year overall debt cost ratio 2.

53%, unchanged from 17 years.

Although the cost of deposits has increased, the market interest rate of funds in 18H2 has fallen, so the cost of issuing bonds and interbank financing in 18 years was 32BP lower than in 18H1.

In terms of structure, deposits at the end of 18 increased by 189.1 billion compared with the beginning of the year, but 18Q4 decreased by 47.6 billion compared with the previous year. Interbank financing decreased by 301.6 billion compared with the beginning of the year.Seized the opportunity of low interest rates and gave full play to the cost-effectiveness of interbank debt.

Enhance retail strategic returns and provide new momentum for growth for 18 years.

The growth rate of deposits has steadily picked up.

In 18Q4, the loan-to-deposit ratio increased by 4 from the previous month.

34 pct.

At 110%, under the constraints of liquidity supervision, the growth rate of deposits may constitute a decrease in the growth rate of loans, but fortunately, the growth rate of deposits has increased from 16 to 17 years.

62%, 1.

The 20% decline has emerged and has shown a steady upward trend, supporting the business to return to traditional deposits and loans: 18 years of loans +11.

10%, deposits +6.

twenty two%.

The prospect of the retail strategy has improved and is expected to become a new growth pole.

The growth rate of personal loans in 18 years was 19 years.

41%, -0 for the rule.

11%, the proportion of retail loans increased to 42%; and the yield on corporate loans was 6.

35%, which is higher than that of males.

67 pct.

, Will effectively 成都桑拿网 boost loan-end earnings.The growth rate of personal deposits in 18 years was 21.

20%, the company’s deposit growth rate is 0.

48%, retail deposits became the main force of deposit expansion.

Asset quality continues to improve, 50 billion convertible bonds make capital more plentiful at the end of 2018 1.

92%, down 22BP from the beginning of the year.

Credit card non-performing rate increased by 49BP to 1 compared with the beginning of the year.

81%, mainly due to the rapid and high growth of credit card overdrafts in 16-17 (the growth rates reached as high as 161% and 57%); although the number of outstanding households increased by 29% in 18 years, the average overdraft balance increased from 1.

830,000 people1.

480,000, or it shows that the quota is tightened at the margin, so that the total overdraft 佛山桑拿网 growth rate replaces 3.

6%, it is expected that its asset quality will stabilize in the future.

The potential adverse indicators continued to decline, the attention rate, the overdue rate, and the overdue 90+ ratio decreased by 33BP / 39BP / 23BP respectively compared with the beginning of the year, and the overdue rate was only 49BP higher than the nonperforming rate.

At the end of 18 years, the provision coverage ratio remained stable, and the provisioning and non-performing disposals returned to normal speed, which also means that their asset quality problems have been basically controllable.

With the issuance of 50 billion convertible bonds, capital will be more abundant.

Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio 10.

79%, higher than the regulatory red line 2.

29 pct.

In addition, it is abundant; in addition, 50 billion convertible bonds have been approved by the CBRC. If the shares are successfully issued and converted, the three capital returns will increase by 116BP.

Investment suggestion: The interest margin has bottomed out, and the improvement of asset quality has benefited from the decline in market interest rates, which has gradually reduced the cost, and the interest margin has widened. The impact of the Chengdu Branch case has basically been absorbed, and asset quality continues to improve.

It is estimated that the growth rate of net profit attributable to mothers will be 4 in 19-21.

5% / 5.

6% / 7.

0%, corresponding to EPS is 1.



25 yuan, given a target price of 13.

84 yuan, corresponding to 0.

92 times 19 PB, maintain overweight rating.

Risk warning: asset quality issues will not be completely cleared out; risks of rising debt costs, etc.

Golden Mile Medical (603882) Annual Report Commentary Report: The Turning Point of the High-Growth Revenue Industry in Q1 Has Arrived

Golden Mile Medical (603882) Annual Report Commentary Report: The Turning Point of the High-Growth Revenue Industry in Q1 Has Arrived
Event: The company released its 2018 annual report and 2019 quarterly report, and achieved operating income of 45 in 2018.25 ppm, an increase of 19 years.35%, net profit attributable to mother is 2.33 ppm, an increase of 23 in ten years.77%.2019Q1 achieved income 11.64 ppm, an increase of 26 in ten years.74%, net profit attributable to mother is 0.420,000 yuan, an increase of 349 in ten years.22%, revenue growth has entered a new level, driving the company’s rapid increase in revenue. The company’s overall gross profit margin in 2018 was 38.83%, a slight decrease of about 2 pp compared to 2017, and the net interest rate was 5.64%. The company’s selling expenses, management expenses and R & D expenses were 7 respectively.01 ppm, 4.4.2 billion, 2.91 ppm, an increase of 10 in ten years.30%, 12.36%, 13.62%. The industry space is huge, and the company’s inspection business has further enriched the research report of the National Health and Health Commission’s Health Development Research Center.5%, the proportion is still possible. The company’s main business medical examination services realized revenue in 201842.35 ppm, an increase of 18% over ten years, and a gross profit margin of 38.19%.The company is committed to developing diversified businesses and expanding the markets it touches. The inspection projects of the clinical trial division have successfully expanded from the field of molecular tumors and 佛山桑拿网 molecular infections to the clinical trials of chronic diseases and rare diseases. Basically, it also involves physical examination services and health inspection services.Forensic evaluation, etc., to expand the demand for clinical testing. The company’s five major laboratories, including Guangzhou, Sichuan, Kunming, Changsha and Guizhou, respectively, achieved revenue in 201814.400 million, 2.6.8 billion, 2.5.8 billion, 2.810,000 yuan, 1.690,000 yuan, net profit is 135.65 million yuan, 46.99 million yuan, 38 million yuan, 32.10 million yuan, 25.68 million yuan, the corresponding net interest rate is 9.4%, 17.5%, 14.7%, 11.4%, 15.2%. Maintaining a “Buy” rating In addition to the traditional medical testing business, innovation-driven development has reached a new level.Actively promote cooperation with Professor Lu Yuming, the “father of NIPT (non-invasive prenatal testing)”, to jointly develop in vitro diagnostic products based on non-invasive fetal genes and genomic diseases.In addition, there are layout products in clinical genomics, clinical mass spectrometry, blood flow cytometry, respiratory virus diagnosis and research and development, and a rich overall inspection content framework.The overall R & D funding in 2018 was 2.9 trillion, accounting for 6 of the total operating income.43%. The industry continues to grow upwards. As a domestic leader, Golden Miles has expanded its growth advantages.We expect the company’s net profit to be 2 in 19-21.87/3.61/4.56 trillion, corresponding to EPS.63/0.79/1.00 yuan / share, maintain “Buy” rating. Risk reminder: the risk of increasing market competition; the pressure of technological innovation gradually increasing the risk; the risk of policy changes; the risk of operational management; the risk of quality control, etc.

Sanda Membrane (688101): a pioneer in the development and application of domestic membrane technology

Sanda Membrane (688101): a pioneer in the development and application of domestic membrane technology

Energy saving and environmental protection is one of the six major business areas of the science and technology board. Since the establishment of the science and technology board, companies that have successfully listed and proposed to be listed on the science and technology board have received widespread attention from the market.

At present, two companies in the environmental protection industry have successfully listed on the science and technology board-Sanda Membrane and Aofu Environmental Protection. Jinke Environment also passed the meeting in early December.

Our team combed the relevant information of 6 environmental protection companies listed on the science and technology board and the proposed science and technology board, and systematically analyzed the company’s business structure, growth, profitability, and competition pattern to form a series of science and technology board reports.

A pioneer in the development and application of domestic membrane technology, the core technology of membrane water treatment has an alternative advantage to ensure its profitability.

Sunda Membrane specializes in membrane material research and development, membrane module production, membrane software development, membrane equipment manufacturing, membrane system integration and membrane technology application, and has built a line covering “membrane materials-membrane modules-membrane equipment-membrane software-membrane applications”Membrane industry chain.

The company is one of the earliest domestic enterprises engaged in the development of industrial advanced membrane separation application technology, and it is also one of the earliest enterprises that introduced foreign advanced membrane technology into China and carried out large-scale industrialization applications.

Sunda Membrane started from the application of advanced membrane technology in the domestic pharmaceutical, chemical, and food industries, and has transformed into two major business sectors: membrane technology and application driven by membrane technology innovation and water investment and operation.

Sanda Membrane’s revenue and profit growth rate has been in the transition period of the past three years, but its profitability has remained at a relatively high level, which is higher than its peers. Due to the water treatment industry’s characteristics of project capital advancement, the company’s cash flow was in 2017-2018Under the background of the tight environment, there has been relative improvement, but the gradual easing of spending funds and policies has made the company’s cash flow situation expected to improve in the future.

The industrial material-liquid separation business has a clear competitive advantage, benefiting from the upgrading of sewage standards and the penetration of the membrane water treatment business in the market space.

The company’s membrane separation technology plays a competitive advantage in the separation of industrial materials and liquids. It has a higher share in cities such as biopharmaceuticals (vitamin C, amino acids, antibiotics), PTA in the petrochemical industry, and also has the advantages of leading corporate customers in the food and beverage industry.Membrane water treatment is also in the process of business development, and the current market share is decreasing; industrial material-liquid separation business and industrial water treatment business will be affected by the 杭州桑拿 prosperity of the downstream industrial industry, and the average growth rate of the industry is expected to be about 10-15%; municipal areasIn the long run, the membrane water treatment market will benefit from the progress of national sewage treatment standards. About 600 billion markets will be opened in the future, and the company will also benefit from the development of the industry.

The leadership structure is stable, and senior management and core technical personnel hold shares, which are aligned with the company’s interests.

The chairman is the leader of the company’s scientific and technological innovation and invention. The risk of adverse effects of technology research and development caused by personnel changes is small. After the completion of the issuance, the couple of actual controllers can still hold about 45% of the company’s equity, and the interests are firmly bound;Executives and core technical team personnel are also basically stable and have restrictions on shareholding interests.

Covered for the first time and given a “Highly Recommended-A” rating.

The company is a leading company in the membrane water treatment industry, benefiting from the escalation of the sewage treatment market and the steady growth of the industrial material-liquid separation business. The listing and financing of the science and technology board also provides a good financial guarantee for the company’s future business development.The growth is expected to be certain. It is expected that the company’s attributable net profit for 2019-2020 will be 2 respectively.

31, 2.

51, 2.

720,000 yuan, corresponding to PE28.



9 times.

Covered for the first time and given a “Highly Recommended-A” rating.
Risk reminders: iterative risk of technological upgrade; operational risks of water investment and operation projects; risks of major customers of membrane technology application business transfer; risks related to accounts receivable; risk of breakthrough in inventory size; systemic risks of the broader market, etc.

Gloria British (002821) Third Quarterly Report Review: Performance Growth Meets Expectations Steady and Coordinated Development of Business

Gloria British (002821) Third Quarterly Report Review: Performance Growth Meets Expectations Steady and Coordinated Development of Business

Event: On October 25, the company announced the third quarter report of 2019: the company achieved revenue of 17 in the first three quarters of 2019.

4.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 44.

61%, net profit attributable to mothers3.

6.7 billion, an annual increase of 40.

48%; Realize deduction of non-attribution net profit3.

3.8 billion, an annual increase of 38.


The company achieved revenue in the third quarter 6.

4.9 billion, an increase of 45.

18%; realizing net profit attributable to mother, deducting non-net profit1.

37 billion, 1.

35 billion, an increase of 31 each year.

63%, 33.

67%; performance growth in line with market expectations.

Key points of investment: The performance growth is in line with expectations, and the gross profit margin is slightly reduced overall. The company’s overall performance growth in the first three quarters of 19 was in line with expectations, of which the overall gross profit margin was 44.

6%, a slight decrease compared with the same period of the previous year, and it is expected that the company will gradually include a relatively high proportion of raw materials for some of the company’s commercialization projects; domestic related businesses are in the early rapid development period, and the relevant business’s gross profit margin is relatively low.The pursuit of stabilization.

In Q3, the company’s net interest rate was 21%, compared with the same period last year4.

3%, mainly affected by diabetes accrual factors.

The company’s net cash flow from operating activities in the first three quarters was 1.

9.6 billion, an increase of 1554% over the same period; meanwhile, the company’s advance accounts at the end of the third quarter accounted for an increase of 193% at the end of last year, showing the company’s good order payment and risk management capabilities.

The various business segments have developed steadily and harmoniously. The one-stop comprehensive service capability of “CMC + Clinical Research Services” has continuously improved. The company also announced the 2019 performance forecast: it is expected that the company will realize net profit attributable to mothers5.

35 billion-6.

0 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25% -40%; non-deductible non-profit growth is expected to increase by 30% -40%.

This year, the company increased its service to domestic innovative drug companies and small and medium-sized innovative drug companies in Europe and the United States, and actively formed long-tail customer groups.

In addition, the company’s steady increase in clinical project orders also reserves potential commercial projects for the company.

At the same time, the company continues to promote clinical research services, chemical 深圳桑拿网 macromolecules, DoE and other business development, and actively improves the “CMC + clinical research services” one-stop comprehensive service capabilities.

At the same time, it has steadily expanded its business of chemical macromolecules such as polycarbonate, polyamide and oligonucleotides.

Profit forecast and investment suggestions: It is estimated that the company will realize net profit attributable to mothers from 2019 to 2020, respectively.

64 billion, 7.

2.9 billion, corresponding to 2 EPS.


15; Corresponding to the current sustainable PE of 51 times and 39 times respectively, continue to recommend and maintain the “Buy” rating.

Risk factors: the risk of exchange rate fluctuations, the risk of business expansion and integration being less than expected

The second Golden Special Meeting is looking forward to new progress in peace on the peninsula

The second “Golden Special Meeting” is looking forward to new progress in peace on the peninsula
Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, January 10th (Global Hotspot) The second Gint special meeting is on the peninsula to look forward to peace and hope for new progress.antique.He also said that North Korea’s top leader Kim Jong-un’s recent visit to China will play a positive role in a possible second meeting between North Korean and US leaders.  Analysts believe that if breakthroughs cannot be made in the negotiations between North Korea and the United States, much work between South Korea and North Korea will be difficult to advance.The DPRK and the United States still maintain the impetus for contact and dialogue. The parties concerned must work together to face the more difficult and substantial problems in the next stage.  [News Facts]Wen Zaiyin said at the New Year’s Press Conference of Qingwatai Antiques that day that China has played an active and important role in the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.  He also said that he expected the second meeting between North Korean and US leaders to be classical in the near future, and also expected Kim Jong Un to visit Seoul after the North Korean and US leaders met.  Wen Zaiyin stated that the lack of mutual trust is a key problem currently facing the DPRK-US denuclearization dialogue.His leader, North Korea and the United States, took corresponding measures during the denuclearization dialogue.The DPRK needs to make further actual progress on denuclearization. At the same time, it must also consider corresponding measures against North Korea to promote the process of denuclearization.  Kim Jong-un said in talks with Chinese leaders on the 8th that the situation on the Korean peninsula eased last year. The important role China is trying to play is obvious to all. The North Korean side highly surpasses and sincerely thanks.The DPRK will continue to adhere to the denuclearization stance, resolve the Peninsula issue through dialogue and consensus, and work for the second meeting of North Korean and US leaders to achieve results welcomed by the international community.It is hoped that the parties concerned will consider and actively respond to the reasonable premise of the DPRK and jointly push for a comprehensive settlement of the Peninsula issue.  [In-depth analysis]天津夜网Zheng Jiyong, director of the Korean Studies Center of Fudan University, believes that one of Kim Jong-un ‘s important visits to China is to coordinate with China, one of the key parties to the Peninsula issue, on the denuclearization of the Peninsula.  Zheng Jiyong said that, unlike the first meeting, the second meeting of North Korean and US leaders must cut into more substantive issues, and the DPRK will also face the deep-water area.In addition to the contents of the denuclearization progress checklist, how to verify and other technical difficulties, the contradictory difficulties are how to continue the progress of building mutual trust and how to maintain the momentum of dialogue.  Zheng Jiyong also said that the DPRK believes that until now the overall US goodwill response has been very small, and it is not easy for the US to lift sanctions against the DPRK in the short term.It is necessary to promote economic development by developing friendly relations with China and South Korea.  [Instant Comment]Spring is coming again.Since the release of warmth on the Korean Peninsula last spring, it has almost completed a season of reincarnation.With the joint efforts of China, the DPRK, and relevant parties, significant progress has been made in the political settlement of the Peninsula issue.  The year’s plan is spring.At present, the general trend of the peace dialogue on the peninsula has taken shape. Talking about and achieving results have become the general expectations and consensus of the international community.It is hoped that all parties concerned will act in good faith and trust each other, make good use of the world, and not miss the historical possibility of a political solution to the Peninsula issue.  [Background link]The situation on the Korean Peninsula has undergone significant positive changes in 2018.North and South Korean leaders have held three antique conference summits to ease the North-South relationship on the peninsula. In June 2018, the President of the United States and Kim Jong Un held their first meeting in Singapore and signed a joint statement.  Since then, the DPRK-US denuclearization negotiations have penetrated the rigid situation.The United States has demanded that North Korea abandon its nuclear program first, while North Korea seeks to relax sanctions by the United States and agree to formally end the Korean War.  Kim Jong-un expressed his firm will to achieve a complete denuclearization of the peninsula in a New Year’s message on January 1 this year, and said that he was ready to have another antique talk with the President of the United States at any time.  The previous 6th said that the United States and the DPRK are negotiating on the venue of the second meeting between the leaders of the two sides.(Participating reporters: Geng Xuepeng, Tian Ming, Du Baiyu, Guo Yang; Editor: Sun Hao) Original title: Global Hotspots: The Second “Golden Special Meeting” is looking forward to new progress in peace on the peninsula

Makihara (002714): 19 years of successful completion, 20 years of growth lead

Makihara (002714): 19 years of successful completion, 20 years of growth lead

Net profit increased by 1053 in 2019.

38% -1130.

28%, exceeding our expectation that the company will announce the 2019 annual results.

38% -1130.

28%; in the single quarter, the company achieved net profit attributable to mothers in 46Q4.


1.3 billion, +2613 year-on-year.

53% -2850.

59%, performance exceeded our expectations.

We expect the company EPS to be 2 in 2019-21.

71 yuan, 9.

66 yuan, and 5.

11 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.

  High hog price boom and significant release of performance flexibility Affected by the African swine fever epidemic. In 2019, domestic hog price boom is high, especially in the second half of the year when the supply gap is highlighted.

According to Zhu Yitong statistics, the average price of live pigs in the first half of 2019 was 14.

01 yuan / kg, the average price of live pigs in the second half of 28.

81 yuan / kg.

Affected by the boom in pig prices, the company’s operating performance has increased.

In 2019, the company’s net profit hub was 62 million US dollars, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1000% +.

  At the same time, benefiting from the improvement of the overall level of prevention and control, the company’s hog breeding costs have steadily decreased, resulting in a complete hog breeding cost of 13%.

05 yuan / kg, an improvement over the first three quarters.

In addition, due to the epidemic situation and retention factors in 2019, the number of pigs slaughtered by the company was lower than expected, so the number of pigs slaughtered was 1025.

330,000 heads, of which about 15% are piglets.

  The completion of the equity incentive plan for the first time, showing the company’s confidence in development. In November 2019, the company granted some executives and core management personnel to invest in shares (4271.

500,000 shares, accounting for 1.

98%), the assessment target is based on the sales volume of hogs in 2019, with a growth rate of no less than 70% in 20 years and no less than 150% in 21 years.
As of the end of December 2019, the company’s breeding sow inventory has reached 128.

320,000 heads, the reserve sow inventory is about 720,000 heads. We believe that the high growth rate of slaughter is based on the ability to breed sows. The company’s stock incentive plan fully demonstrates the company’s confidence in future development.

  Significant growth in cyclical fluctuations. Maintaining the “Buy” rating Since 2017, the company ‘s overall slaughter volume has maintained an incremental growth overall, and the growth attribute has been prominent in the cyclical changes. At the same time, 杭州夜网论坛 considering the industry ‘s slaughter weight gain and slaughter extension effects,Factors such as the increase in the magnitude of substitutes have adjusted the price of hogs from 19-21 to 19.


5/17 yuan / kg (previous value: 17/25/17 yuan / kg), while adjusting the slaughter volume of 19-21 years to 1025.

33/2200/2700 million heads (previous value: 111/22/27 million heads).

Accordingly, we adjusted the company’s EPS to 2 in 2019-21.

71 yuan, 9.

66 yuan, and 5.

11 yuan, with reference to a PE company’s estimated 8 times PE in 2020, taking into account the company’s cost advantages and high growth expectations, we give the company 10-11 PE in 2020, corresponding to a target price of 96.


26 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.  Risk Warning: The pig production volume is not as expected, the pig price is not as expected, and the epidemic is repeated.

The third week of the US government’s closed Democrats try new measures to urge the government to open

The third week of the US government’s “closed” Democrats try new measures to urge the government to open
Some federal government agencies have been shut down for the third week, and negotiations between the Democratic and Republican parties on the cost of building the wall have not progressed.The Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi said on the 5th that the House of Representatives will promote the passage of a new version of the appropriation bill, one by one to meet the needs of federal government agencies, and restore these agencies to operation.  [Changes]Vice President Mike Pence, Senior White House Adviser Jared Kushner, Acting Director of the White House General Office Mick Malwani, Homeland Security Secretary Coster Nelson met with senior assistants of the Democratic leaders of Congress on the 5th.  Informed officials told the Associated Press that the meeting lasted more than two hours without a breakthrough.  Another informed official said the Democrats urged the Republicans to let the government open the door as soon as possible, but the White House doubled the asking price.  Pence said in an interview with the media afterwards that the meetings were fruitful, but the two sides did not discuss their concessions in depth and agreed to continue the talks on the 6th.  Democratic House members met on the same day to discuss ways to reopen some federal agencies.Pelosi told media reporters that the Democratic Party will launch a new department-specific appropriation bill next week, allowing federal agencies to reopen one by one.  She said the first appropriation bill would be used by the Treasury and its Internal Revenue Service’s tax department to allow Americans to receive tax refunds on time.  Pelosi said: Just as the president threatened to shut down the government for ‘years’, Democrats are taking immediate action to reopen the government. We can only do this to meet the needs of the people, protect the border and respect employees.  Republican President Donald Trump insisted that Congress approve more than $ 5 billion to build a separation wall along the border between the southwestern United States and Mexico. Democrats strongly opposed it, and the appropriation bill including the cost of building the wall could not be passed.A quarter of federal agencies have closed since December 22 last year, affecting 800,000 employees.  The new Congress opened on the 3rd. The Democrats regained control of the House of Representatives. On the same day, they pushed for a funding bill that did not include the cost of building walls, but the White House and the Republican Party, which still controls the Senate, clearly opposed it.  [Complaint]Trump made another series of remarks on social media Twitter on the 5th, shouting to the Democratic Party.He said in a tweet: Democrats want to end the government shutdown in a very short time, they just need to agree to true border security (including building a wall).  He said in another tweet: If we agree on strengthening border security, I will immediately stop the government shutdown.I’m ready at the White House. What about the Democrats?  In an interview on the 4th, Trump said that in order to implement the border wall plan, he did not hesitate to shut down the government for months or even years.He also threatened to use presidential authority to bypass Congress and build a wall directly by declaring a national emergency.  The president of the United States usually declares a national emergency only during times of war.The Associated Press reports that if Trump wants to use this shortcut to bypass Congress, he may face legal challenges.  Democrat Jack Reed, a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, said: To avoid congressional approval, a fabricated state of emergency was declared wrong.  A joint poll by Reuters and Ipsos revealed that as the federal government closed, 50% of the respondents blame Trump, 7% blame the Republican Party, and 32% believe it is the responsibility of the Democratic Party.(Wang Hongbin) (Xinhua News Agency) Original title: The third week of the US government’s “closed 杭州夜网论坛 door” The Democratic Party tries new measures to urge the government to open

China Southern Airlines (600029) Quarterly Report Review: Operating Leases Consolidated to Amplify Foreign Exchange Earnings in First Quarter Results Meet Expectations

China Southern Airlines (600029) Quarterly Report Review: Operating Leases Consolidated to Amplify Foreign Exchange Earnings in First Quarter Results Meet Expectations

Incident Southern Airlines disclosed the first quarter report of 2019, and achieved operating income of 376 in the first quarter.

3 billion, a 10-year growth of 10.

4%, net profit attributable to mother 26.

500 million, an annual increase of 4.


In the first quarter, the business volume increased by two digits, and the quality of revenue increased slightly. With the continuous expansion of the fleet size, the company’s business volume continued to grow, and ASK835 was achieved in the first quarter.

1 billion, an increase of 10 years.

3%, achieving RPK692.

2 billion, an increase of 11 in ten years.

9%, load factor 82.

88%, an increase of 0 every year.

47 points.

The quality of revenue dropped slightly by about 杭州夜网论坛 2%, and revenue growth was slightly lower than the increase in business volume.

The unit non-oil cost or improvement in the first quarter was slightly lower than last year’s comprehensive purchase cost of jet fuel. Therefore, the increase in jet fuel cost should be slightly lower than the growth rate of business volume. In terms of non-oil cost, considering operating lease consolidation, some past operating leasesFees are now reflected in fees, so if you consider the comparable caliber, the company ‘s non-oil cost ranking in the first quarter of the company may have improved in the same period last year.

Operating leases are consolidated to increase exchange gains. In terms of expenses that are basically stable, and sales expenses, the company’s sales expense ratio was 4 in the first quarter.

44%, a decline of 0 per 成都桑拿网 year.

44%, management (including research and development) expense ratio 2.

46%, basically unchanged from the same period last year.

Due to the consolidation of operating leases, the company’s lease debt reached 102.1 billion, a significant increase from the beginning of the year. As operating lease aircraft leases are mainly paid in US dollars, US dollar debt has increased significantly, and exchange sensitivity has increased significantly, so even a quarter of exchange rate appreciationThe margin is much lower than the same period of last year, and the additional lease and leasing expenses are reflected in financial expenses, and the company’s financial expenses are still only -41 million.

Overall, the ranking of cost levels was basically stable in the same period last year.

Supplementary income increased, disposal income decreased, and performance was basically in line with expectations. Benefited from supplementary growth, the company’s other income in the first quarter.

600 million, an increase of 3 per year.

520,000 yuan, while the disposal income was 36 million yuan, which was significantly more than the same period last year2.

At 23 million, the investment income is 1.

6.3 billion, a slight decrease of 0 previously.

5.3 billion.

On the whole, the company’s first-quarter performance basically met expectations.

Investment suggestion We continue to be optimistic that the continuous improvement of residents’ consumption capacity will drive the high-speed growth of civil aviation demand. On the supply side, the current B737MAX aircraft is completely grounded and the delivery is delayed. It is likely that it will miss the peak season in early 19th, and the supply gap will be significant later, which will help prices rise.

Maintain the “Buy” rating, and expect the net profit attributable to mothers to be 84 in 2019-2020.

4 billion, 102.

100 million, corresponding to the current sustainable PE estimates are 12X, 9 respectively.


Risk warning: macroeconomic fluctuations, increase in oil prices, exchange rate changes, security incidents