Wuliangye (000858): 19-year revenue target increase of 25% to 50 billion raises earnings forecast

Wuliangye (000858): 19-year revenue target increase of 25% to 50 billion raises earnings forecast

The event describes the company’s chief revenue of 400.

300 million, previously +32.

6%, net profit attributable to mother 133.

800 million, previously +38.

4%; Q4 revenue was 107.

800 million, previously +31.

3%, net profit attributable to mother 38.

900 million, previously +43.


The company plans to pay 17 yuan for every 10 shares.

  Core Opinions 1. Perfect ending in 18 years, the sales of high-end wine broke 30 billion: the company gradually released a performance forecast, the annual report is in the range of the forecast, the company exceeded the initial set goals, including high-end / low-end wine revenue +41.

1% / + 12.

9% to 301.

900 million / 75.

The sales volume of high-end series is expected to reach more than 2 inches, and the capacity expansion trend is obvious under the background of consumption upgrade. The single Q4 tax and additional ratio are reduced by more than 0.

18pct to 14% (Q3 is growing by 3 per year.

34pct), the impact of consumption tax on profits has been basically eliminated, and it is expected that the profit elasticity in 19 years will be reflected; the sales expense ratio / management expense ratio will be shortened by -2.

6pct / -1.

7 points to 9.

4% / 5.

9%, the advance payment at the end of the year increased by 42 from the end of Q3.

700 million to 67.

1 billion, a substantial increase in cash flow in the appropriate period (sales receipts / operating net cash flow per second + 42% / +129.

8% to 195.

900 million / 84.

400 million), mainly due to the company’s request at the end of last year for the dealers to complete the first half of this year’s sudden change in the five years and the Spring Festival peak season earlier than last year.

  2. The Spring Festival sales exceeded expectations, and the expansion of consumer groups was obvious. The revenue target for 19 years increased 杭州桑拿网 by 25% to 50 billion: At the beginning, the market was very different from Wuliangye. From our channel visits in early January, feedback from some dealers alsoComparatively speaking-“high channel inventory, low prices, and serious rejection”, coupled with pessimistic macroeconomic expectations, the market’s attention to liquor is very low, but starting in mid-to-late January, Wuliangye’s market sales began to accelerate, and prices also increased.Beginning an initial rebound, the approval price rose from 780 to 820-830 yuan after the festival, and the overall performance exceeded market expectations.

On the whole, the company’s Spring Festival sales exceeded expectations. It is said that there is no problem in meeting core demand. After the price gap with Moutai has widened, the cost increases and the consumer group continues to expand. This is also the core driving force to support the company’s continued growth in the future.More and more concentrated, so the explosion of demand is more and more concentrated, the growth logic and trends of the industry have not changed.

Judging from the guidelines, the company’s 19-year revenue target reached 50 billion, an increase of about 25%, showing a firm confidence in the development of the industry and the company. From the performance of the Spring Festival and the company’s operating situation, we believe that the performance target should be achievedThe pursuit is complete.

  3. The price increase and marketing reforms have been promoted simultaneously. The internal motivation and channel confidence have significantly increased, and the growth potential will be accelerated. At the spring candy meeting, the company showed a new look, and the internal motivation was significantly improved. From the perspective of channel communication, dealer confidenceIt has also improved significantly.

After the Spring Festival sales exceeded expectations, the current stock of Laopu Five has replaced the low level. The company will then launch a collector’s edition and the eighth generation of new products. The price will rise step by step. The price of the new Laowu will be set at 879-889 yuan.Annually reduce new quality, reduce quantity and price, in product strategy (substitute products, launch ultra-high-end), marketing strategy (control panel profit sharing), team building (expanding the team, detailed evaluation), terminal control (combating consignment), channelsPioneering (decomposed from large regions into provincial theaters) and other market issues have also increased reform efforts.

On the whole, the company is on the right track. The biggest problem of Wuliangye lies in internal management and channels, not on the demand side. The marketing reform initiated by the company really releases the company’s development potential.The price increase at the company’s total time point is also the right choice. It is called liquor. The price height represents the brand height. The brand height determines the future development space. At present, the price of 1,000 yuan has not changed.Problems, therefore, price increases can not only enhance the brand, but also increase channel profits, and it will not affect consumer demand.

  4. Profit forecast and rating: EPS is expected to be 4 in 19-21.



32 yuan, corresponding to PE20 / 16/14 times, maintaining a highly recommended level.

  5. Risk warnings: 1) Constant changes in the macro economy affect demand for high-end wines; 2) The price increase effect of new products does not meet expectations; 3) Food safety incidents.