Exploiting the potential of shadow stocks of securities firms after double trillion

Exploiting the potential of “shadow stocks” of securities firms after “double trillion”

Source: Red Magazine Finance OTC funds swarmed into the market, and the daily turnover of A shares broke another trillion. This is also the third day in the history of A shares since the big bull market in 2014-2015 and the spring offensive of 2019.

In fact, the financing balances of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets have continued to remain above the trillion-dollar level. Even after the Spring Festival, the financing balance has been reduced to more than one trillion.

Behind the “Double Trillion”, it means that A-share transactions are active, market sentiment is soaring, and a gradually rising index forms a good trend of “price increase and volume increase”.

In such an active market, the brokerage sector is at least the most directly beneficial. Although the transaction fee rate has been increasing overall, the volume is better than the shrinkage, at least it will result in a periodical performance improvement, and the long-term increase in the valuation of the brokerage firm, The expected rise.

Therefore, brokerages are one of the industries with a high degree of certainty of “Davies Double-click” in the bull market, and it is already the mainstream consensus in the market.

  In addition to the fact that the enlarged transaction has a direct positive effect on the brokerage business of the brokerage firm, the segmentation reform of the capital market since 2019 has also brought continuous benefits to the investment banking business of the brokerage firm.

For example, the establishment and pilot registration system of the Science and Technology Innovation Board, relaxation of refinancing regulations such as fixed-income growth, and the promotion of the new third board reform, etc., will help brokers, especially head brokers, promote investment banking business and obtain more profits independent of market transactions.

In addition, through the rise of the market, the brokerage’s self-operated business has also gone up, and the value of holding secondary market stocks has continued to increase. The “troika” of the brokerage company has gone hand in 杭州桑拿 hand, benefiting all-round, and driving the formation of resonance.

In addition, many industries have recently been affected by the epidemic, and the securities companies are basically unscathed. Instead, they have clearly benefited from the active market trading and policy support. In the case of listed companies in other industries, the quarterly reports may have improved.The growth of great certainty, such a contrast has further increased the relative value of the securities firm’s sector in the overall market, and attracting further participation of OTC funds is also a highly probable event.

  For investors, investing directly in securities stocks or participating in related ETF funds is a way of layout, and to a certain extent, it can be regarded as a well-known “bright brand.”

In some cases, the “shadow stocks” of some participating securities firms can be regarded 杭州桑拿网 as “hidden cards”. In the case of a probable increase in the securities firm’s shares, it has completely led to the rise and fall of the participating securities firms. At the same time, because of their inherent investment value or mergers and acquisitionsValue, bringing greater volatility to investors.

Historically, the “shadow stocks” performance of some participating securities companies is not weak, and even because there is a time lag between the start of the securities sector and investors, it has become an opportunity for investors to rotate operations, or to tap the funds to make up for the upswing.

The author believes that if investors have scepticism about chasing up the already-broken brokerage firms, or if they are suspicious of the second-time brokerage stocks that are about to be lifted by a large number of restricted stocks, then they will find that the “shadow stocks” of the brokerage firms that have been activated mayIt’s a direction to focus on.

  Historically, the “shadow stocks” of some stockbrokers have brought generous returns to investors.

For example, in the big bull market in 2006-2007, the double-sided needle (600249) as the shadow stock of CITIC Securities (600030), the largest increase in more than 21 times in two years, and the largest increase at the same time is basically close to CITIC Securities, exceeding the increase of most stocks at that time,Even better than the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index.

Youngor (600177), another shadow stock of CITIC Securities, also achieved a far greater rise in the bull market.

If an investor compares the securities company’s stock with the “shadow stock” of the participating securities firm, and captures the opportunity to make up for the backwardness, it will be impossible to achieve a higher income than a single holding of the securities firm’s stock.

  In addition to the “shadow stocks” of the participating securities companies, in addition to the “owner-children-expensive” ownership of the securities companies they hold, there may also be merger value.

Especially since the M & A and restructuring in 2019, the secondary market placards have appeared many times.

For some shadow stocks whose own property rights are relatively scattered and the largest shareholder’s shareholding ratio is in a weak holding share, based on the potential of their own value revaluation, it is possible to attract off-market funds to hold a card, and the robe becomes the actual controllermay.

If this “shadow stock” is itself the largest shareholder of the securities firm, or because the securities firm’s equity is also scattered, resulting in a major shareholder change due to the increase in the secondary market share holdings, the “shadow stock” will be in the funds phase.Possibility of “single bird with two sculptures”.

Through such a way of placarding, the control of multiple listed companies in one fell swoop, especially a listed securities dealer with a financial scarcity license, is bound to be a highly efficient act.

  Similar examples have recently appeared in A shares. Liaoning Chengda (600739), the second largest shareholder of GF Securities, was increased by Shaoguan Gaoteng through the secondary market, and other shareholders were agreed to acquire shares of the company. 12

46% of the shares, surpassing the former largest shareholder Liaoning State-owned Assets Management Co., Ltd. 11 in one fell swoop.

11% stake.

At the same time, as Liaoning Ningda is the second largest shareholder of GF Securities, its shareholding ratio is 16.

40%, only 0% away from Jilin Aodong, the largest shareholder.

03%, only a small increase in the secondary market is required to replace it.

This move not only promotes Liaoning Ningcheng Chengda’s supplementary net assets, but also helps investors think about the replication effect of the corresponding logic.

Similar to Liaoning Chengda is Yatai Group (600881), whose first largest shareholder holds only over 9%, and the company is also the largest shareholder of Northeast Securities, with a stake of more than 30%. It may also be possible in the future.There was an increase in holdings of “two birds with one stone” in the photo.

At the same time, the stock is not yet in a “double break” stage. Both the net assets and the fixed price three years ago have clearly fallen, which is equivalent to a 2015 high of over 80%.

  In addition to licensing potential stocks, investors can also examine the potential of “shadow stocks” from three major indicators.

The first is to fully include the number of securities companies’ shares, which relatively intuitively reflects the gold content of “shadow shares”.

For example, Jilin Aodong (000623) contains GF Securities up to 1.

0796 shares, which is equivalent to the value of the current Guangfa Securities stock that is expected to reflect its holders. The remaining assets are equivalent to “free gifts”, including pharmaceutical assets with good profitability. There is a certain degree of possible miscarriage.

This indicator is relatively high also Zhongshan Public (000685), Renfu Medicine (600079) and so on; the second indicator is the comparison of the market value of the “shadow stock” itself and the market value of the stockholders.

In particular, for some varieties with a small market value and low price, if this ratio is large, it will often inject more flexibility into the increase and bring gradual attack power.

For example, Jiangsu Suntian (600287) has a market value of about 2.6 billion US dollars, and the value of Huaan Securities shares held is 800 million U.S. dollars. The driving effect is obvious. Other market values have little or no alternative hype;The three indicators are the estimated levels of the “shadow stock” itself. If the price-earnings ratio and price-to-book ratio return are stable, and the performance is stable, the staged growth brought by the stockbrokers will restore the company’s own value.Such as holding Guoxin Securities 4.

Urban Construction Development (600266) with 18% shares, its own performance has increased steadily. According to the 2019 annual report pre-increasing rate, the price-earnings ratio is only about 6 times, and the price-to-book ratio is only 0.

68 times, holding the value of the shares of Guoxin Securities accounted for more than 30% of its own market value; holding Western Securities 15.

09% of Urban Investment Holdings (600649), the current P / B ratio is only 0.

About 7 times, the value of holding the equity of Western Securities accounted for more than 35% of its market value.

The underestimation of similar varieties to a certain extent blocked the previous downward space, and the appreciation of securities firms’ equity has gained a considerable degree of offensiveness, which has the characteristics of both offense and defense.

  Table 1: Participating in the “shadow stocks” of some securities firms, but for some of the holdings of the securities firms, the proportion has been reduced, and the securities firms have not synthesized in advance, or the “shadow stocks” that are difficult to accurately estimate are not listed on A sharesBefore investigating its fundamentals, it is impossible to estimate the attributes of participating securities companies with too high expectations. Based on the mining of the company’s own value, it is a better way to participate in “shadow stocks” of securities companies.

(The article refers to the correct reference, which does not constitute substantial investment advice, and you should do it at your own risk.