Moutai, Guizhou (600519): Stick to the beginning and stay steady

Moutai, Guizhou (600519): Stick to the beginning and stay steady
Highlights of the report Event description Guizhou Moutai issued an announcement: 2020 Moutai liquor sales plan is 3.Around 45. Incident Comment The planned increase in 2020 is slightly higher than expected, and it is expected that next year double-digit revenue growth will be maintained. Overall, it is estimated that the sales plan for Moutai in 2020 will be about 3.45 announced, referring to the planned volume in 2019 (Announcement 3.1 or so) The increment is about double digits, and the volume is slightly higher than market expectations.From a structural point of view, after the reform of the marketing system, the company’s channel structure has changed, forming a new pattern of co-existing channels of “dealers (including specialty stores), supermarkets, e-commerce, group purchases, and self-operated stores”: ① in 2020Continue to follow the principle of “no increase, no decrease” with the dealer contract, of which at least 80% of the 7,500 tons planned to be put in focus before the Spring Festival next year will be contributed by the dealer’s channel;Promote the re-launch of Moutai E-commerce), the group purchase plan, and at the same time substantially increase the scale of self-employment. In principle, it must grow exponentially in order to replace blank markets, reduce intermediate exchanges, and face end consumers.The scale of dealers is stable, and mergers are promoted through supermarkets / e-commerce / group purchases. At the same time, it is planned to increase self-employment. It is expected that the company’s revenue growth will be maintained at more than 10% in 2020, of which volume contribution is greater than ton price contribution. It is expected that in 2020, the product structure and channel structure will be further optimized. Slowing down the pace will only lay a solid foundation.After the rapid growth in the past few years (the compound growth rate of revenue and profits is expected to be more than 30% in 2016-2019), the company will pay more attention to the quality of growth in 2020, and the specific performance is: It is expected that the series of wines in 2020 will remain unchanged according to scale, The speed does not require the principle of arrangement, the goal is still sales of 3 and reach 10 billion; 43-degree wedding wine only wedding cake red, stop wedding cake white, at the same time focus on Beijing, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, to build a model market; Pay close attention to the construction of windows, focus on strengthening the management of airports and high-speed rail stores, and do not let windows become furnishings.In 2020, the overall growth tone will be stable, the marketing tone will be standardized, and the management tone will be stricter, laying a solid foundation for the company’s long-term stable growth. The volume and price growth path is clear, and the growth is certain.At 佛山桑拿网 present, the approval price of Moutai is about 2400 yuan, there is a huge price difference with the ex-factory price, the potential for theoretical price increases, dealer inventory generally increases, and the tight balance between supply and demand continues. Moutai, as the only liquor company in the liquor industry, is in the market.The weights carried out independently can be actively adjusted and optimized, and the company’s medium-term and long-term growth can be replaced with certainty.The company’s EPS is expected to be 33 in 2019/2020.68/38.57 yuan, corresponding to the current expected PE in 2019/2020 is 35 times / 30 times, maintain “Buy” rating. Risk Warning: 1. The performance did not meet expectations; the downward pressure on the economy increased; 2. Appreciation price fluctuations have intensified; market competition has intensified.